After a safe campaign, the Right in government for ten years, and a victory in the debate against the least popular president in history, we are left with just 51.8% to show for it.

Those who said the campaign could not be lost have been proven wrong. It would be a foolish act of both naivety and wishful thinking to suggest that massive Labour gains in local elections and a Socialist victory in France signal a revival of the Left in Europe. (I don’t even need to open the Guardian to know it is saying exactly that!)

That all sounds very pessimistic, but just as I said that it was important to remember that ‘no sitting president ever lost the first round’, we must also remember that the Parti Socialiste has never won two consecutive national elections. Mitterrand was re-elected in 1988, but that was in between the cohabitations of 1986-1988 and 1993-1995.

This brings me to the legislative elections in a month’s time. It is possible, perhaps even likely, that Hollande’s victory will sufficiently mobilise left-wing voters to deliver a confident parliamentary majority. That is usually the pattern, even the tradition, of the 5th Republic, but it is difficult to see what is usual or unusual about the political climate at this time.

On the formation of the government, I said before the first round that I believe Hollande will choose the either Socialist Parliamentary Group Leader, Jean-Marc Ayrault or Martine Aubry as prime minister, with Moscovici becoming Secretary General of the Elysée.

Polls have already circulated over whether Hollande should invite the Greens, the Front de Gauche (the Reds) or the centrists into the government. Deals have been done in the legislatives to hand safe seats to the Greens, and given the fact that Eva Joly won around 2% in Round 1 it might have seemed unnecessary.

A PS-Green deal should work well for both parties. Hollande will need a strong Green Group in the Assemblée so that the PS does not seem too dominant. For the first time ever, the PS will control the Presidency, the Sénat, possibly the Assemblée, 21 or 22 regions, most départements and plenty of mayors. Hollande will be glad to have the Greens as human shields and the Greens will be happy to be able to weigh in on the national debate more seriously. Contrast this with the fact that, if Hollande were to work with the Front de Gauche, Jean-Luc Melenchon would constantly be outbidding Hollande for more spending and tax rises in a way that the Greens could not.

With a score of 51.8%, and a turnout of 80%, I cannot see where any new left-wing votes will come from. It is worth remembering that 7% voted blank yesterday. Whether that was a vote for ‘none of the above’ or an indication of Marine Le Pen’s power over the far right remains to be seen, but there are two million blank voters out there who are lurking quietly in the wings.

Now that Sarkozy has supposedly quit politics (to work on his son’s career), there is a power vacuum in the UMP. Jean François Copé is set to lead and has been positioning himself accordingly for months. Meanwhile, François Fillion remains popular within the party. Recently, I noted that Copé has proposed to reinstate official courants (i.e. factions), meaning that the UMP is beginning to look remarkably similar to the grotesque chaos of the Parti Socialiste after Jospin in 2002.

Sarkozy’s greatest failure, more long lasting than all the other failures, is the revival of the Front National. This is good for the Left and simultaneously bad for the Republic.

It is good for the Left because Marine Le Pen has given instructions that, should FN candidates qualify for the second round in a parliamentary constituency, they are to stay in the race against the PS and the UMP candidate. The FN will thus split the right wing vote and let the PS slip in. Hollande’s majority will come from tricking the system rather than new voters, hence why the PS-Green alliance will be successful.

It is bad for the Republic because it has made the UMP move to the Right and therefore the border between the UMP and the FN more porous. For a short term and unstable political gain, Sarkozy has alienated or killed off the last of the Gaullist Republicans. That is why former President Chirac and former Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin returned for their final revenge against Sarkozy. If the UMP does suffer heavy losses in the legislatives, the hard-right heirs to Sarkozy will do what would have been unthinkable for Chirac and form an alliance with the FN. It will be secretive at first, then informal, and then could permanently restructure the right. That is to be lamented.

In conclusion, though there are still mountains to climb and clouds on the horizon there are still reasons to be cheerful. The Republic has won its second Socialist President, and that can only be good for democracy.

Hollande leads with 28.63%
Sarkozy comes out with 27.08% (slightly better than the estimations that had him on 26.5).
Marine Le Pen sets a new record on 18.01%
Melenchon ends up with 11.13% (significantly less than the polls suggested, but an impressive performance having started at 5%)
Bayrou in the centre gets 9.11%
Joly (Greens) gets a poor 2.28%

Libération has the best and most interactive results gadget here but the FranceTV one can be embedded:

Rue89 calls the second round for Hollande, claiming that ‘there is no way Sarkozy can win’ (French).

I am much less optimistic. Not least because of my philosophy ‘If the PS can find a way to lose, it will.’

Hollande is the leader, which is better than I was expecting but 2% is not as high as I would like in order to feel comfortable. With two weeks to go he will be forced to define his ideas more clearly, and there is little to gain from debating with Sarkozy. Sarkozy proposed 3 debates last night, Hollande has refused two of them. Sarkozy will portray this as recognition of inexperience.

Sarkozy’s lurch to the far right has failed, but still remains his only hope. Analysts give Sarkozy a maximum reserve of 60% of the FN vote, and about 30% of the Bayrou vote.

The international press will focus on the Le Pen vote (only thing that seems to interest non-anaorak foreigners – if you are reading this, congratulations, you are in the anorak club). My question is, ‘What happened to Melenchon’s people?’ They didn’t go to Hollande at the last minute, they didn’t go back to the greens (polls were accurate on those two accounts), and they didn’t stay at home given 80% turnout.  Is it possibly that the crusty left lurched to the far right? Extremes meet.

Melenchon’s disappointing 11% score does not, in my view, give Hollande a very secure reserve as 15% would have done. The mysterious ‘dynamique’ that Hollande will get from leading in Round 1 will have to be translated into support from non-supporters. Perhaps Sarkozy’s far-right strategy will scare off enough centrists? It might, but it probably wouldn’t matter.

That said, my PS friends point to the fact that the Left is very high compared to normal (I didn’t want to upset them by saying Jospin came first in 1995 and still lost in the second round).

Before the results were in last night, a second round poll was conducted giving Hollande 54 and Sarkozy 46. Encouraging, but I don’t buy it will two weeks to go.

Overal, the next two weeks will not take place in the centre. Both Sarkozy and Hollande will have to try and pick apart the FN; a very unpleasant direction.

Alors je flippe.

As I did with the posters, I’m going to look at each video in turn. They are all about 1m 30s (there is also a longer 3m version but they don’t seem to have been released yet). I’m also going to assume that you may not necessarily understand French. If you don’t, it could well be a bonus because you’ll get a good feel of each style.

1. Nicolas Sarkozy

The video chimes well with the campaign. Sarkozy is centre stage in front of a clear blue sky. Sarko looks straight into the camera, with a few zooms in and out so that people don’t get bored. Simple, and not remotely flashy, to try and get away from the bling-bling image. It cuts at the end to a rally in which he states, ‘I need you!’ as he has constantly pleased for help over the last five years. Plenty of French flags waving about, of course. I would have thought that Sarko would bring out some fireworks as a ‘here goes nothing’ attempt, but in fact he has tried to come across as a very serious incumbent.

2. François Hollande
(I am working in the same order as the posters, but I suggest you watch the others before this one.)

Wow! Some have said the Hollande campaign has been boring, but this is a real gear change. Nothing new exactly, as the clip is an excerpt from the Bourget speech, where he launched the campaign in January, but I get the impression that the stakes have been very much raised. We are hit hard  immediately with a powerful statement, ‘Every nation has a soul! The soul of France is equality!’ evoking all the images of equality in French history. This, sneakily and cleverly, poaches General de Gaulle, the hero of France (and man of the Right). The Revolution, the Third Republic, the Front Populaire, General de Gaulle, François Mitterrand, Lionel Jospin: The left can govern!  The (pipe organ!) music, the shouting, the hysteria of the crowd, the montage, it’s like a trailer for the most dramatic, action packed film ever to have been filmed. Justice NOW! Hope NOW!  Change NOW! I think it is also significant that it ends with Vive la République, vive la France!’ 

3. Jean-Luc Melenchon

There’s something really charming about this clip. The music is subdued but upbeat, with a faint marching drum in the background. Much of the clip is JLM on the left hand side of the screen (remember Sarkozy in the centre) in front of his red background. It’s as if his poster came to life. He gives us a little lesson about his program with cute little facts on the right hand side.

It ends with a clip from one of his rallies. Red background, red tie, red flags, the outstretched fist; I thought for a moment I saw a hammer and sickle at 00:49 but I was mistaken. A quick montage of various JLM supporters, including a group of (presumably communist) mayors, then a greater focus on the crowd itself rather than the candidate. For a split second at 3:01 there is a brilliant shot of JLM looking off into the distance, presidentially. It might be my imagination, but at 3:04 there is a very soviet building hidden behind a flag. Not a single tricolor in sight though. The huge crowd at the end is something for which he deserves credit, too.

4. Marine Le Pen

The Front National clip is almost suspiciously similar to Sarkozy’s. Marine Le Pen is centre stage in front of a light blue background (you might even say a marine blue background!) and immediately starts sounding off about this and that. Shouting, not in a passionate way but with trademark indignation, the very first sentence is a snide and sarcastic snap at Sarkozy. However, nothing about immigrants (for once) but she still talks about how the political classes have abandoned the people. A lot about petrol prices too. Weird.

Did you notice? There are no cuts, no zooming in or out, no images, just her in one streaming rant. The end of her clip feels as if she has been cut off rather than coming to a conclusion. More significantly, and the direct opposite of Melenchon (unsurprising), there is not a single other person in the video. No crowd, no supporters, nobody. She is all alone.

5. François Bayrou

Like Bayrou himself, the clip is a funny mix of all the others. It’s hard to take anything in once you notice the background. He starts off talking to the camera (slightly to the left) in front of a moving background of clouds in the sky. Suddenly it cuts away and he’s standing in the same position, saying the same sentence, but now he’s in front of a lake! He’s suddenly changed position! Interspersed with chatting to people in the street. Then the background changes again.

6. Eva Joly

From the ‘a bit funny’ to the downright strange. The Green Grandma’s ad just comes across as peculiar. For a start, she’s wearing those green glasses. You know, the ones she never wears. Really, just google images ‘Eva Joly’ and you will find that her trademark glasses are red.

Apart from that, she is sitting in a TV studio, which only highlight how artificial the clip is (rather than showing ‘honesty’ or ‘breaking the fourth wall’). I think the weirdest part is that she is sitting in a TV studio writing to France as if the country was her grandchild, (others might say it was her will, but I won’t get into that.) The music is saccharin Suddenly, she is in front of the camera but reading from something off screen. Then it changes angle and she’s looking off to the side. Then there are three of her! Then someone throws down a beat and she starts rapping. There is nothing about this that works, I would say it’s a parody but I can’t think what it could possibly be trying to parody.

7/8/9/10. The Rest

You can watch the other clips for Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (almost identical to Sarkozy’s clip, but with a bit of drama about a tree thrown in at the end), Nathalie Arthaud (filmed in her garage), Philippe Poutou (who wanders around town looking for someone to talk to) and Jaques Cheminade (who lives in 1995) by clicking on their names. They might be nice to watch once but they are quite inconsequential.

One of the many things I like about French political culture is their use of posters. Outside every polling station you will find the panneaux électoraux (election panels), where each candidate is assigned a numbered panel on which they are permitted to place their poster.

In the same way I discussed a local election I was involved in (here) I am going to examine each candidate in the French Presidential elections and comment on their campaign through the medium of their posters. In the spirit of fairness, I will follow the order of the latest polling for first-round voting intentions.

A common theme I have noticed, looking at them all, is the lack of party logos and even the lack of the candidate’s name.

1. Nicolas Sarkozy, UMP

The incumbent, often referred to as ‘the outgoing candidate’ by his main rival. Sarkozy looks much more serious than he did five years ago. This took about half an hour to be ruthlessly parodied (more on parodies here). A blue sky giving way to sunset, with Sarkozy looking out to sea might convey calm, until you discover that far from the cote d’azur, the picture was taken from the Aegean Sea.

Sarkozy announced his candidacy and came to the race late. This was most likely a ploy to generate media coverage, or rather take it away from others, and create a will-he-won’t-he narrative. That fits in with the style of the campaign, summed up in his constant refrains of ‘help me’ ‘being President is hard. That surprised nobody, as François Hollande said on the same evening as when Sarkozy declared his candidacy, ‘So we have now heard that the President-Candidate is now the Candidate-President!

Nevertheless, Sarkozy is a first-rate campaigner and will fight to the bitter end. La France Forte was also the slogan of another one-term president, Giscard d’Estaing (poster), who, in a cruel foreshadowing of history, lost to another Socialist called François.

2. François Hollande, Parti Socialiste

Everything about this image is designed to convey consistency and stability. The campaign walks a tightrope trying to be left enough to appeal to the base while appearing ‘safe’ enough to be entrusted with power. The blue suit, tie, and sky mimic Sarkozy’s typical style, while Hollande is one of the few candidates to look the voters in the eye, face on. The background of a rural, typical French village only adds to the down-to-earth ‘trust me’ theme. There is, at least, a bit of a smile, but nothing revolutionary.

Hollande has been in the race longer than anybody else. Almost a year ago, he announced he was running for the primaries to become the Socialist candidate before the election campaign. His nickname used to be ‘Flanby’ a French brand of flan, because he’s boring. However, if you have watched and listened to his speeches, I doubt you would consider him boring. He also has the bonus of being the only candidate I have met personally.

3. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Front de Gauche

JLM came from almost nowhere to become a real player in the campaign rising to third place and hence ‘best of the rest’, despite all the hysteria (that I warned against) about the rise of Marine Le Pen. Though his programme is not overly different to that of Hollande, he is free to be a great deal more revolutionary in his rhetoric, rising to 15% at Hollande’s expense, allowing Sarkozy to eek ahead in the first round. JLM has become the master of the big rallies, his indignant style of oratory hitting home with those most hurt by the crisis.

JLM looks off into the distance in front of a beautiful shade of red (matching the tie) that comes across as frankly Leninist. The text is a verb conjugation that is an order to the reader, while the candidate’s name is very small at the bottom.

4. Marine Le Pen, Front National

MLP’s campaign seems to have floundered somewhat (see here for background), despite the presence of classic themes like immigration and Europe which should be low-hanging fruit for the far right. Perhaps Sarkozy’s strategy of lurching to the right is working after all?

Again, no mention of either name or party. The obligatory flag is clear and the OUI tries to be positive, as does the general lighting, with Marine in a different pose to all the other candidates. Everything is done to distance herself from not only the other parties, but her own as well.

5. François Bayrou, Modem

Bayrou is nowhere near as important as he was in 2007 where he managed to pick up the ‘neither him or her’ vote, despite managing about 10%. A centrist, in the Lib Dem sense of the word (i.e. right leaning) from whom Sarkozy has tried to pinch a few votes too. Very little to say really. At least he’s smiling.

6. Eva Joly, EELV

The Greens debated whether to put up a candidate or not. Given that Joly is at 2%, it looks like they should have not, instead negotiating an agreement with Hollande. Poor Joly, who is a weak candidate anyway, recently fell down some stairs and was hospitalised. The poster, ‘The real change’ is a likely dig at Hollande’s change campaign.

The odd thing about this poster is that her glasses have been photoshopped green to match her party, whereas in reality they are always red.

7. The Rest under 1%

French media still runs under an old-fashioned rule about giving each candidate equal time for coverage, despite an obvious disparity between the above and the below. I don’t though, so here you have the remaining candidates who really needn’t have bothered:

Nathalie Arthaud

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

 

Phillipe Poutou

Jaques Cheminade, I couldn't find anything but his poster from 1995

So there you have the ten candidates for the 22 April, where the two who come out on top go through to a second round on May 6th.

I thought it would be interesting to go back over them and see what has happened since then.

1. The Reshuffle

Nicolas Sarkozy’s intentions to replace his Prime Minister have been announced several times, though Francois Fillon still remains in Matignon.

Fillon has proven more difficult to get rid of than Sarkozy and his friends would like. The Prime Minister’s personal approval ratings have shown that he’s one of the most popular right-wing figures in France and notably more so than the President. As a figure of responsibility, stability and sensibility within the UMP party, he has often had to play the fireman after Sarkozy’s incendiary comments.

Nevertheless, the reshuffle will be the last chance Sarkozy has to appoint another Prime Minister and organise the team that will take him into the elections.

Fillon has survived but his stock did not rise enough to make him into a real contender, though he could be poised for 2017. It was suggested that Fillon may have ran against Sarkozy, but Fillon is clearly a very loyal man.

Fireman Fillon is now trying to put out a fire of his own making. He made an incendiary statement that Jews and Muslims should revise their outdated beliefs about slaughtering animals for food, saying that halal and kosher no longer amounts to much. He also cited a poll that claimed that the main concern of French people was the halal meat issue.

2. L’affaire Woerth that won’t go away

Like the MPs’ expenses scandal, L’affaire Woerth was a scandal that could not have come at a worse time. Just in time for the summer, it was the perfect gift to any journalist who needed to fill a front page or an editorial. Also like MPs’ Expenses, it was more of a political scandal than a judicial one as the rules were not technically broken but certainly had their structural integrity tested.

As a relatively complex financial scandal, details and speculation kept the story going. What is particularly damaging for Sarkozy is that because of its complexity, few will understand but all will disapprove. Segolene Royal called the government corrupt on prime-time news, which was then backed up by a particularly worrying poll for the President.

Though it is no longer on the front page, l’affaire Woerth still remains a motif. The last legislative item of the parliamentary term will be a law to deal with such ‘conflicts of interest’.

3. A poor economic recovery

Unemployment has always been a problem in France (several theories why) and now it’s higher than ever at around 9.5%. This contributes to a massive deficit of 8%, which means that the government won’t be able to offer any pre-election giveaways.

A piecemeal return to growth, which is unlikely to exceed 1.4% in 2010 (compare it to the 3% expected from Germany), won’t help either of these two problems.

I think this was written even before Greece was in trouble.

4. A Socialist Revival

After an extraordinary showing in March 2009 in the Regional Elections and a surprising show of unity during their party conference in La Rochelle, the media narrative of the Socialist Party has turned from a Party in terminal decline to a Party revived and ready to win the presidency for the second time in history… as long as they can find a suitable candidate.

Strauss-Khan was bumped off from the race before he even announced he was running. in fact, it may be forever unknown whether he would have run or not, were it not for the incident. Given the subsequent court appearances, the PS may well have dodged a deadly bullet wound.

The primaries were a profound success, and everybody had to acknowledge that. Far removed from the bitter and bloody duels between Martine Aubry and Segolene Royal in mid-late 2009, the primaries were a rather sporting show of a sense of purpose. François Hollande won by a clear margin with a large turnout, giving him a mandate, good media coverage, and a head start in the polls.

Hollande is not necessarily an inspirational leader, but has managed to mould his image successfully into a would-be president.

5. Pension Reform

Sarkozy’s plans to raise the legal retirement age from 65 to 67 have put him on the wrong side of the populist argument. On September the 7th, he was faced with a nationwide strike.

I can’t explain in words how serious the situation in France is at the moment, but let me try and illustrate how important the issue is. Nice, a very rich and right-wing city in the most pro-Sarkozy department in the country, saw between 20,000 and 30,000 people take to the streets. Multiply that from Lille to Toulouse, and you might get the picture.

Still an important issue and though the anger has cooled, it has not subsided. Hollande has promised to reverse the changes and put the retirement age back down to 60… for certain people who meet certain criteria.

6. Disquiet in the ranks

If Fillon caused Sarkozy some trouble by trying to put out the fire, the rest of the UMP grandees have been lighting some more matches. Three of Chirac’s Prime Ministers, Juppé, de Villepin and Raffarin have all been ready to criticise various aspects of governmental policy. It looks like the centrists in the party will not be writing Sarkozy a blank cheque any longer.

De Villepin is a candidate on a centrist platform in the election, though his polling numbers are low single figures. There are no other challenges from other UMP types. The centre in France, however, is not only electorally small but also crowded. Sarkozy moves further to the right to poach voters from Marine le Pen and her Front National.

7. The Roma and the Republic

This deserves a longer post, but Sarkozy has assaulted Marianne (the female personification of the French Republic) in his forcible deportation of the Roma. Even the Pope, the most reactionary man on the planet, has condemned the policy. Even the European Parliament, with its right-wing majority, condemned the policy in a single afternoon.

Another issue that has cooled but has left a scar. Sarkozy and a few of his ministers come back to the question of ethnicity and national identity time and time again, trying to move to the far right.

Overall, of the seven hurdles that I looked at in 2010, Sarkozy only really cleared One and Six. Numbers Two, Five, and Seven are no longer hot issues but have still left their mark, while numbers Three and Four turned out much worse for Sarkozy than he could have hoped.

This political year in particular will be important. With the Presidential elections in mid 2012, Nicolas Sarkozy is coming to the end of his first mandate, and at present his second one is by no means a fait accompli.

So to set the agenda for the coming political year, here are the 10 main hurdles Sarkozy needs to overcome as we enter the last lap of his Presidency.

1. The Reshuffle

Nicolas Sarkozy’s intentions to replace his Prime Minister have been announced several times, though Francois Fillon still remains in Matignon.

Fillon has proven more difficult to get rid of than Sarkozy and his friends would like. The Prime Minister’s personal approval ratings have shown that he’s one of the most popular right-wing figures in France and notably more so than the President. As a figure of responsibility, stability and sensibility within the UMP party, he has often had to play the fireman after Sarkozy’s incendiary comments.

Nevertheless, the reshuffle will be the last chance Sarkozy has to appoint another Prime Minister and organise the team that will take him into the elections.

2. L’affaire Woerth that won’t go away

Like the MPs’ expenses scandal, L’affaire Woerth was a scandal that could not have come at a worse time. Just in time for the summer, it was the perfect gift to any journalist who needed to fill a front page or an editorial. Also like MPs’ Expenses, it was more of a political scandal than a judicial one as the rules were not technically broken but certainly had their structural integrity tested.

As a relatively complex financial scandal, details and speculation kept the story going. What is particularly damaging for Sarkozy is that because of its complexity, few will understand but all will disapprove. Segolene Royal called the government corrupt on prime-time news, which was then backed up by a particularly worrying poll for the President.

3. A poor economic recovery

Unemployment has always been a problem in France (several theories why) and now it’s higher than ever at around 9.5%. This contributes to a massive deficit of 8%, which means that the government won’t be able to offer any pre-election giveaways.

A piecemeal return to growth, which is unlikely to exceed 1.4% in 2010 (compare it to the 3% expected from Germany), won’t help either of these two problems.

4. A Socialist Revival

After an extraordinary showing in March 2009 in the Regional Elections and a surprising show of unity during their party conference in La Rochelle, the media narrative of the Socialist Party has turned from a Party in terminal decline to a Party revived and ready to win the presidency for the second time in history… as long as they can find a suitable candidate.

5. Pension Reform

Sarkozy’s plans to raise the legal retirement age from 65 to 67 have put him on the wrong side of the populist argument. On September the 7th, he was faced with a nationwide strike.

I can’t explain in words how serious the situation in France is at the moment, but let me try and illustrate how important the issue is. Nice, a very rich and right-wing city in the most pro-Sarkozy department in the country, saw between 20,000 and 30,000 people take to the streets. Multiply that from Lille to Toulouse, and you might get the picture.

6. Disquiet in the ranks

If Fillon caused Sarkozy some trouble by trying to put out the fire, the rest of the UMP grandees have been lighting some more matches. Three of Chirac’s Prime Ministers, Juppé, de Villepin and Raffarin have all been ready to criticise various aspects of governmental policy. It looks like the centrists in the party will not be writing Sarkozy a blank cheque any longer.

7. The Roma and the Republic

This deserves a longer post, but Sarkozy has assaulted Marianne (the female personification of the French Republic) in his forcible deportation of the Roma. Even the Pope, the most reactionary man on the planet, has condemned the policy. Even the European Parliament, with its right-wing majority, condemned the policy in a single afternoon.

Let’s hope Sarkozy had a nice holiday, because he’s got his work cut out for him this year.

It is lots of fun and easy to do, but the Labour Party needs to be disciplined enough to resist attacking the Lib Dems over the betrayal of their voters. However, as the parable of the Labour MP on a cliff goes: kick off the Tory before the Lib Dem; put business before pleasure.

In many ways, this is not the New Politics but an even more secure return to two-party politics. As much as we would like to say that it was Labour that denied the Tories the majority they took for granted, until the Lib Dems gave it to them, the increased amount of ‘others’ in the Commons make it more and more difficult for any party to win a majority. This is the real damage done by the Lib Dems, and perhaps in the future we will have to add the Greens to the list.

To that extent, we should prepare ourselves for two party politics and focus our arguments against the real enemy of the Tory Party.

It is important to remember the real reason that the Coalition exists: the Tories could not get a majority by themselves. The fact that Conservatives released the “Hung Parliament” scare video should show that they invited the Lib Dems into the Government not by choice but by necessity. Cameron will rightly want to go it alone as soon as he can, though given his own announcements on fixed terms and dissolution he will have to bide his time unlike Wilson in 1974. Even if Cameron does wish to continue the coalition for a second term, it will be almost impossible to convince his backbenchers.

The key point is that the Coalition is not a marriage of two equal partners; it is a hostile takeover of a big company consuming a little one, and not all the Lib Dem shareholders will agree.

A similar example is President Sarkozy’s party, the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP). Few people realise that his government is actually UMP-Nouveau Centre. The Nouveau Centre was originally part of the Mouvement Democrate (MoDem), a party very similar to our Liberal Democrats, which will be a point of focus in Part Five, but it was formed by a group of MPs who decided to break away and ally with Sarkozy.

The worry for the UMP is that the Nouveau Centre will present its own candidate in the presidential election in 2012, draining a few important percentage points away from Sarkozy and a time where he is currently on level pegging with the Socialist Leader Martine Aubry. The Nouveau Centre thus tries to assert its independence despite not having any, being a tiny minority within the government.

The lesson from France is that Labour the best kind of Lib Dem squeeze will be to drop all the clumsy and ineffective lines it has been using since May. References to the “Con Dem Party” and repetition of the word “coalition” and “betrayal” serve no purpose except that it creates a novelty factor that will undoubtedly prolong the honeymoon period.

It is this appropriate to treat the Coalition not as something strange but as something that is all too familiar; this is a Tory Government in all but name. It is up to Labour to call it as it is.

By doing this, it takes away the room to manoeuvre that both parties are currently enjoying. They cannot keep using the excuse that their weakness, hypocrisy, u-turns and climb-downs are simply a result of having to compromise and that it is the “other party” that is responsible for all the bad things while they take the credit for the rest. In interviews, you can be sure that when things are going well a Conservative will represent the government but when it gets tough, they will wheel out a hapless Lib Dem fall guy. We have already seen it on Question Time over the last few weeks.

This reinforcement of collective responsibility is the only way Labour can hold the government to account from Opposition. The central theme is not to play on what the Lib Dems have done to form the Coalition but instead Labour should emphasise their similarities over their differences. It is vital that any Lib Dems who would associate themselves more with the left come to Labour instead of “others” however, it is possible that protest voting is just a component of the Lib Dem DNA.

Ultimately, we have to keep in mind that the Lib Dems are just there to make up the numbers on the Tory backbenches. We should therefore show them up as what they are: useful idiots. In interviews, you can be sure that when things are going well a Conservative will represent the government but when it gets tough, they will wheel out a hapless Lib Dem fall guy. We have already seen it on Question Time over the last few weeks.

Repeatedly, the Tories have taken advantage of the Lib Dems who are hopelessly out of their depth and essentially benign in that the Tories are winning the internal arguments so easily. On the Economy, on Foreign Policy, on Europe, on Health, Immigration, Families and more the Tories get their way, and that is just the original coalition agreement. It is clear that the Liberal leadership is content to let the conservatives run free, providing that they get a ride on the odd hobbyhorse. Instead of Proportional Representation, a referendum on Proportional Representation, the Alternative Vote, they seem to be happy with a paltry referendum on the Alternative Vote, which the Conservatives (and Labour if we have any sense) will oppose. There is no better example of giving a baby its bottle without literally presenting Clegg with one.

Before the election, the Lib Dems were given an inflated about of publicity which Labour now needs to suffocate by sidelining and dismissing the yellow dummies at the back. Here I have described how Labour should change its response to the Lib Dems; in Part Five I will examine how the Lib Dems have changed by themselves.

De Villepin and Sarkozy are old enemies. Everytime Sarkozy thinks he has beaten de Villepin for good, he just keeps coming back. For a year and a half, de Villepin has been out of politics, having been implicated (but acquitted) in the Affaire Clearstream (a financial scandal around the Elysée) and a slander trial, in which Sarkozy was co-plaintiff.

It is assumed that the new party, or rather, new group, such is the way French politics works, will be a mechanism to damage further Sarkozy and thus make his candidacy more credible. Sarkozy’s UMP party are likely to support him as their candidate for re-election.

Nobody expects de Villepin to win. Predictions are around 5-7%. The newspaper Libération (the one I read) carried a few polls inside that suggested there was some strong support for him, but nothing significant. His support base comes from his different style to Sarkozy, seen as much more of a diplomatic intellectual compared to the bling-bling president.

The most shocking effect his result could produce is to deny the UMP a place in the second round of the Presidentials.

The Socialists seem to have kept their act together following their regional successes (give it time…), all they need to do now is select a credible candidate and they could be in with a very good chance of victory.

The Greens have a lot of momentum behind them now, after two significant advances in the European and Regional elections (June 2009 and March 2010) but will mostly support the Socialists, at least in the second round.

The focus will be on the Front National. Perhaps one of the greatest failures of Sarkozy is the way he dealt with the fascists, by moving his party closer to them in order to steal some votes. It worked in 2007 and in 2009, but they have now stood him up. The FN showed that they were still live and kicking in the Regionals, and though Jean-Marie Le Pen won’t be the candidate, his daughter might be able to sustain a high enough score.

As a conclusion, it is thus worth considering that we may see a bizarre reversal of 2002. Back then, the Socialist were knocked out in Round One, leaving a UMP (then known as the RPR) vs Front National battle.

If de Villepin manages to attract enough support, he might finally get his revenge against Sarkozy: a humiliating first-round defeat that leads to a Socialist-Fascist fight, and then a Socialist President.

She claimed that she would not decide to stand alone, but would instead consult with the other main leaders of the Parti Socialiste in France, namely the Chief Secretary (leader) Martine Aubry and Dominique Strauss-Kahn, probably the best man for the job of taking out a gravely weakened Sarkozy in 2012.

On the one hand, I certainly hope it is true that she will not stand, as she is loved by some and hated by others. Personally I do not think she is the right candidate; she lost to Sarkozy in 2007 and her stock has not increased since then. Just looking at the Regional Election results, it becomes clear that the Socialists can take control of the presidency provided, as I have often said, that they can get their act together. For this, Royal is far too divisive.

It should thus be a simple task to choose the best candidate for taking on an, shall we say, emasculated, president. Royal is categorically not the right person as she does not command a broad enough coalition of support outside of her own cult within the PS. Aubry has had a much improved reputation in the media since the Regional success, but she just isn’t presidential material.

Imagine, if you will, a reverse of 2002; in the second round, instead of the UMP candidate and the Front National, we see a match between the Socialist and the Fascist.

Sarkozy has finally made his mark on French history, it was thanks to him the Left won its highest score since the formation of the fifth republic (1958). Isn’t it beautiful?

In PACA, I’m delighted to say we won our corner. Results from France 3, because I spent the evening in their TV studio in Nice:

Michel Vauzelle (44%)
Thierry Mariani (33%).
Jean-Marie Le Pen (23%)

Abstention dropped from around 53% last week to 48,81%

President Sarkozy will meet with Prime Minister Fillion, it is presumed he will resign. I noted last week that Fillion would be the one to jump, despite that fact it is Sarkowy who has been governing. It is rather unfair considering Fillon is more popular than Sarkozy.

A longer post will follow tommorow.