This political year in particular will be important. With the Presidential elections in mid 2012, Nicolas Sarkozy is coming to the end of his first mandate, and at present his second one is by no means a fait accompli.

So to set the agenda for the coming political year, here are the 10 main hurdles Sarkozy needs to overcome as we enter the last lap of his Presidency.

1. The Reshuffle

Nicolas Sarkozy’s intentions to replace his Prime Minister have been announced several times, though Francois Fillon still remains in Matignon.

Fillon has proven more difficult to get rid of than Sarkozy and his friends would like. The Prime Minister’s personal approval ratings have shown that he’s one of the most popular right-wing figures in France and notably more so than the President. As a figure of responsibility, stability and sensibility within the UMP party, he has often had to play the fireman after Sarkozy’s incendiary comments.

Nevertheless, the reshuffle will be the last chance Sarkozy has to appoint another Prime Minister and organise the team that will take him into the elections.

2. L’affaire Woerth that won’t go away

Like the MPs’ expenses scandal, L’affaire Woerth was a scandal that could not have come at a worse time. Just in time for the summer, it was the perfect gift to any journalist who needed to fill a front page or an editorial. Also like MPs’ Expenses, it was more of a political scandal than a judicial one as the rules were not technically broken but certainly had their structural integrity tested.

As a relatively complex financial scandal, details and speculation kept the story going. What is particularly damaging for Sarkozy is that because of its complexity, few will understand but all will disapprove. Segolene Royal called the government corrupt on prime-time news, which was then backed up by a particularly worrying poll for the President.

3. A poor economic recovery

Unemployment has always been a problem in France (several theories why) and now it’s higher than ever at around 9.5%. This contributes to a massive deficit of 8%, which means that the government won’t be able to offer any pre-election giveaways.

A piecemeal return to growth, which is unlikely to exceed 1.4% in 2010 (compare it to the 3% expected from Germany), won’t help either of these two problems.

4. A Socialist Revival

After an extraordinary showing in March 2009 in the Regional Elections and a surprising show of unity during their party conference in La Rochelle, the media narrative of the Socialist Party has turned from a Party in terminal decline to a Party revived and ready to win the presidency for the second time in history… as long as they can find a suitable candidate.

5. Pension Reform

Sarkozy’s plans to raise the legal retirement age from 65 to 67 have put him on the wrong side of the populist argument. On September the 7th, he was faced with a nationwide strike.

I can’t explain in words how serious the situation in France is at the moment, but let me try and illustrate how important the issue is. Nice, a very rich and right-wing city in the most pro-Sarkozy department in the country, saw between 20,000 and 30,000 people take to the streets. Multiply that from Lille to Toulouse, and you might get the picture.

6. Disquiet in the ranks

If Fillon caused Sarkozy some trouble by trying to put out the fire, the rest of the UMP grandees have been lighting some more matches. Three of Chirac’s Prime Ministers, Juppé, de Villepin and Raffarin have all been ready to criticise various aspects of governmental policy. It looks like the centrists in the party will not be writing Sarkozy a blank cheque any longer.

7. The Roma and the Republic

This deserves a longer post, but Sarkozy has assaulted Marianne (the female personification of the French Republic) in his forcible deportation of the Roma. Even the Pope, the most reactionary man on the planet, has condemned the policy. Even the European Parliament, with its right-wing majority, condemned the policy in a single afternoon.

Let’s hope Sarkozy had a nice holiday, because he’s got his work cut out for him this year.

It is lots of fun and easy to do, but the Labour Party needs to be disciplined enough to resist attacking the Lib Dems over the betrayal of their voters. However, as the parable of the Labour MP on a cliff goes: kick off the Tory before the Lib Dem; put business before pleasure.

In many ways, this is not the New Politics but an even more secure return to two-party politics. As much as we would like to say that it was Labour that denied the Tories the majority they took for granted, until the Lib Dems gave it to them, the increased amount of ‘others’ in the Commons make it more and more difficult for any party to win a majority. This is the real damage done by the Lib Dems, and perhaps in the future we will have to add the Greens to the list.

To that extent, we should prepare ourselves for two party politics and focus our arguments against the real enemy of the Tory Party.

It is important to remember the real reason that the Coalition exists: the Tories could not get a majority by themselves. The fact that Conservatives released the “Hung Parliament” scare video should show that they invited the Lib Dems into the Government not by choice but by necessity. Cameron will rightly want to go it alone as soon as he can, though given his own announcements on fixed terms and dissolution he will have to bide his time unlike Wilson in 1974. Even if Cameron does wish to continue the coalition for a second term, it will be almost impossible to convince his backbenchers.

The key point is that the Coalition is not a marriage of two equal partners; it is a hostile takeover of a big company consuming a little one, and not all the Lib Dem shareholders will agree.

A similar example is President Sarkozy’s party, the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP). Few people realise that his government is actually UMP-Nouveau Centre. The Nouveau Centre was originally part of the Mouvement Democrate (MoDem), a party very similar to our Liberal Democrats, which will be a point of focus in Part Five, but it was formed by a group of MPs who decided to break away and ally with Sarkozy.

The worry for the UMP is that the Nouveau Centre will present its own candidate in the presidential election in 2012, draining a few important percentage points away from Sarkozy and a time where he is currently on level pegging with the Socialist Leader Martine Aubry. The Nouveau Centre thus tries to assert its independence despite not having any, being a tiny minority within the government.

The lesson from France is that Labour the best kind of Lib Dem squeeze will be to drop all the clumsy and ineffective lines it has been using since May. References to the “Con Dem Party” and repetition of the word “coalition” and “betrayal” serve no purpose except that it creates a novelty factor that will undoubtedly prolong the honeymoon period.

It is this appropriate to treat the Coalition not as something strange but as something that is all too familiar; this is a Tory Government in all but name. It is up to Labour to call it as it is.

By doing this, it takes away the room to manoeuvre that both parties are currently enjoying. They cannot keep using the excuse that their weakness, hypocrisy, u-turns and climb-downs are simply a result of having to compromise and that it is the “other party” that is responsible for all the bad things while they take the credit for the rest. In interviews, you can be sure that when things are going well a Conservative will represent the government but when it gets tough, they will wheel out a hapless Lib Dem fall guy. We have already seen it on Question Time over the last few weeks.

This reinforcement of collective responsibility is the only way Labour can hold the government to account from Opposition. The central theme is not to play on what the Lib Dems have done to form the Coalition but instead Labour should emphasise their similarities over their differences. It is vital that any Lib Dems who would associate themselves more with the left come to Labour instead of “others” however, it is possible that protest voting is just a component of the Lib Dem DNA.

Ultimately, we have to keep in mind that the Lib Dems are just there to make up the numbers on the Tory backbenches. We should therefore show them up as what they are: useful idiots. In interviews, you can be sure that when things are going well a Conservative will represent the government but when it gets tough, they will wheel out a hapless Lib Dem fall guy. We have already seen it on Question Time over the last few weeks.

Repeatedly, the Tories have taken advantage of the Lib Dems who are hopelessly out of their depth and essentially benign in that the Tories are winning the internal arguments so easily. On the Economy, on Foreign Policy, on Europe, on Health, Immigration, Families and more the Tories get their way, and that is just the original coalition agreement. It is clear that the Liberal leadership is content to let the conservatives run free, providing that they get a ride on the odd hobbyhorse. Instead of Proportional Representation, a referendum on Proportional Representation, the Alternative Vote, they seem to be happy with a paltry referendum on the Alternative Vote, which the Conservatives (and Labour if we have any sense) will oppose. There is no better example of giving a baby its bottle without literally presenting Clegg with one.

Before the election, the Lib Dems were given an inflated about of publicity which Labour now needs to suffocate by sidelining and dismissing the yellow dummies at the back. Here I have described how Labour should change its response to the Lib Dems; in Part Five I will examine how the Lib Dems have changed by themselves.

De Villepin and Sarkozy are old enemies. Everytime Sarkozy thinks he has beaten de Villepin for good, he just keeps coming back. For a year and a half, de Villepin has been out of politics, having been implicated (but acquitted) in the Affaire Clearstream (a financial scandal around the Elysée) and a slander trial, in which Sarkozy was co-plaintiff.

It is assumed that the new party, or rather, new group, such is the way French politics works, will be a mechanism to damage further Sarkozy and thus make his candidacy more credible. Sarkozy’s UMP party are likely to support him as their candidate for re-election.

Nobody expects de Villepin to win. Predictions are around 5-7%. The newspaper Libération (the one I read) carried a few polls inside that suggested there was some strong support for him, but nothing significant. His support base comes from his different style to Sarkozy, seen as much more of a diplomatic intellectual compared to the bling-bling president.

The most shocking effect his result could produce is to deny the UMP a place in the second round of the Presidentials.

The Socialists seem to have kept their act together following their regional successes (give it time…), all they need to do now is select a credible candidate and they could be in with a very good chance of victory.

The Greens have a lot of momentum behind them now, after two significant advances in the European and Regional elections (June 2009 and March 2010) but will mostly support the Socialists, at least in the second round.

The focus will be on the Front National. Perhaps one of the greatest failures of Sarkozy is the way he dealt with the fascists, by moving his party closer to them in order to steal some votes. It worked in 2007 and in 2009, but they have now stood him up. The FN showed that they were still live and kicking in the Regionals, and though Jean-Marie Le Pen won’t be the candidate, his daughter might be able to sustain a high enough score.

As a conclusion, it is thus worth considering that we may see a bizarre reversal of 2002. Back then, the Socialist were knocked out in Round One, leaving a UMP (then known as the RPR) vs Front National battle.

If de Villepin manages to attract enough support, he might finally get his revenge against Sarkozy: a humiliating first-round defeat that leads to a Socialist-Fascist fight, and then a Socialist President.

She claimed that she would not decide to stand alone, but would instead consult with the other main leaders of the Parti Socialiste in France, namely the Chief Secretary (leader) Martine Aubry and Dominique Strauss-Kahn, probably the best man for the job of taking out a gravely weakened Sarkozy in 2012.

On the one hand, I certainly hope it is true that she will not stand, as she is loved by some and hated by others. Personally I do not think she is the right candidate; she lost to Sarkozy in 2007 and her stock has not increased since then. Just looking at the Regional Election results, it becomes clear that the Socialists can take control of the presidency provided, as I have often said, that they can get their act together. For this, Royal is far too divisive.

It should thus be a simple task to choose the best candidate for taking on an, shall we say, emasculated, president. Royal is categorically not the right person as she does not command a broad enough coalition of support outside of her own cult within the PS. Aubry has had a much improved reputation in the media since the Regional success, but she just isn’t presidential material.

Imagine, if you will, a reverse of 2002; in the second round, instead of the UMP candidate and the Front National, we see a match between the Socialist and the Fascist.

Sarkozy has finally made his mark on French history, it was thanks to him the Left won its highest score since the formation of the fifth republic (1958). Isn’t it beautiful?

In PACA, I’m delighted to say we won our corner. Results from France 3, because I spent the evening in their TV studio in Nice:

Michel Vauzelle (44%)
Thierry Mariani (33%).
Jean-Marie Le Pen (23%)

Abstention dropped from around 53% last week to 48,81%

President Sarkozy will meet with Prime Minister Fillion, it is presumed he will resign. I noted last week that Fillion would be the one to jump, despite that fact it is Sarkowy who has been governing. It is rather unfair considering Fillon is more popular than Sarkozy.

A longer post will follow tommorow.

Parti Socialiste: 29.5%
UMP: 27%
Europe Ecologie: 12.5%
Front National: 11.7%
Front de Gauche: 6.2%
Modem: 4%
Extreme Gauche: 3.7%

Participation: VERY LOW around 46.5%

Conclusions:

• This is the worst score the UMP has ever had. Sarkozy was nowhere to be seen the entire night, and typically the Prime Minister, Francois Fillon was left holding the bag.
• Segolene Royal won 39% of the vote, evidently that’s amazing strong.
• The Greens have been able to secure their place as the third force in French Politics though they are a long way behind the Socialists, the orange MoDem people have been confined to the dustbin.

Now for the results in my regon of Provence Alpes Cote D’azur, which make for interesting reading:

Parti Socialiste: 26%
UMP: 26%
Front National: 20%
Europe Ecologie: 11%
Front de Gauche: 6.5%

So the PS and the UMP are neck and neck, which is amazing for the Left in an area like this. The Greens are able to go to the second round but I think it will be more likely that they fuse lists with the Socialists, likewise the FDG.

The FN have struck big here. One the one side you have Toulon, the most fascist town in the country, and then on top of it you have Jean-Marie Le Pen, a brand by himself. I think he enjoyed an emotional vote as it is the last time he’ll be a candidate.

It just goes to show there is still a lot to play for; but overall it was an excellent night for the Parti Socialiste.

The lead is not restricted to PACA though, as the PS is widely expected to guard its monopoly over regional government, perhaps even taking control Alsace and Corsica as well.

Below is a map that shows the results from the previous elections in 2004, and in 1998:

Polls generally put the Socialists around two or three points ahead for the first round, and once the Greens, MoDem, and Front National parties get knocked out on Sunday, we’ll see a straightforward duel between the Parti Socialiste and the UMP.

I was generally expecting an unpleasant prognosis for the PS, as the (predicted) success is probably more despite the leadership of the party than because of it, which confirms my general perception of French Politics: decentralised campaigns for a centralised state. The PS in particular is very weak and ineffective at a national level (see the problems between Segolene Royal and Martine Aubry), yet incredibly effective at a regional and local level, there still remains many nigh-unconquerable socialist bastions.

So the PS is likely to win in spite of itself, with the real emphasis of the vote going to punish Sarkozy midway through his presidential term. His right-wing Union pour un Movement Populaire has also suffered from the disastrously explosive debate on National Identity, hijacked by far-right.

What we have seen is a huge change in media narrative. Following its paltry score of 16% in the EU Parliament elections in June, the press declared that the Parti Socialiste was now a party in terminal decline, predicting that the Greens (Les Verts) would become the new party of opposition. Instead, the storyline has reversed, and now points to a resurgence after a long period of self-reflection.

On the 14th and 21st of March, elections for the Conseils Regionals all over France will take place.

These will be a decisive test for French politics because, as it stands, the Parti Socialiste has everything to play for. Currently, the Socialists hold an impressive 20 out of 22 regions, with Corsica and Alsace being the ones out of reach. Although Sarkozy’s right-wing UMP is looking to grab as many as it can, notably PACA, signs of success don’t look promising.

It is a peculiarity I noted during my stay, that the French Parti Socialiste is incredibly strong at a Regional (obviously) and local level. Nationally, they just can’t seem to get their act together, though I have noticed a clever and subtle branding change recently. Anyway, these elections could be the victory the PS seriously needs to turn the Press Narrative in its favour, in my analysis, the PS still has not quite reconciled itself over defeat in round one in the Presidential elections of 2002, having been beaten by Jean Marie Le Pen (Front National).

Speaking of JM Le P, this brings us neatly (it’s as if I plan and organise these articles, isn’t it?) to the elections in Provence-Alps-Cote d’Azur, a key area I worked in between June and two weeks ago.

Observe the video:

For non-francophonists, the video outlines the opinion polls in PACA. The first slide shows voting intention for the first round, depending on the results, two or three parties will go through (there are certain details, but lets call it that if the FN, as the 3rd party, get more than 10%, they go through). 30 seconds in, you see the voting intention in case of a “triangulaire”, three-way fight. At 49%, it’s good news for the socialists, despite the Greens running their own list (disruptive, non?). At 45 seconds, it shows the voting intention in case of a left-right duel, in which it’s a closer race 53:47 with the Socialists ahead. The rest of the video shows the current Président de la Région Michel Vauzelle (friend of the blog!) saying the usual “this is a good result but we mustn’t be complacent.”

I’ll be going back to France to help out the PS in PACA between the first and second rounds. In you want to learn more, click here and here to see previous relevant posts.

In fact, right-wing UMP Mayor Christian Estrosi has made Nice the champion of all of France… for local tax increases!

See the map for runners up:

The tax rises he has decided on this year will mean that a family in Nice will have to pay an extra 200 euros on average.

For certain property owners, the increase of 17% of the taxe d’habitation (living in a building) and 16.5% in the taxe foncière (owning a building) could be up to 900.

However, this money won’t be going towards neighbourhood improvement, or education, or social help for the elderly, or to create jobs. It will instead serve the financial requirements of the Mayor’s whims and pet projects. The failed candidacy to host the Olympic Games, the Balcons du Mercantour (the creation of a hiking route costing 20 millions euros) and cable cars to the Observatory…

Remember, it’s not just the Left who want to tax and spend, the Right are equally audacious. The difference is what they want to spend it on!

(French Speakers may wish to watch the report from France 2:)

I’ve been asked about the roles of the Président and the Premier Ministre in the past, but without going deep into constitutional affairs (don’t cry, maybe we will another day) by far the most important role of the French Prime Minister is to take the fall for the President.

When François Mitterrand was having trouble in 1991, he sacked Michel Rocard and appointed Édith Cresson. Then when that didn’t work out, in came Pierre Bérégovoy in 1992.

Jacques Chirac, however, tends to swim in muddier waters. His Prime Minister, Alain Juppé, was tried and convicted in 2004, charged with the abuse of public funds when City of Paris personnel were used for right-wing party political purposes. (My coursemates will of course remember that Juppé was Chair of the Rassemblement pour la République, which later become Sarkozy’s Union pour un Mouvement Populiare.)

Juppé and Chirac: Let me take care of this

Juppé was the only one convicted, but many people believed that he was not the only person responsible. In fact, it’s a little hard to believe the Chirac had nothing to do with it. Juppé never spoke about it.

Coming back to Clearstream, de Villepin is taking the same line in refusing to involve the former president, quite surprising since his future career rests on him not getting into too much trouble.

One President de Villepin isn’t trying to protect is Sarkozy. As they fight it out between themselves, you can bet Chirac won’t be standing in the crossfire.