Posts Tagged "Spain"

Welcome to the Spanish Elections: Decisíon Dos Mil Once

Though Spain’s economic forecasts often make international headlines, its political forecasts rarely do.

When the outgoing President, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, brought the general election forward from March next year to November this year, he placed Spain at the beginning of a long year of elections, to be followed by the French Presidentials in May 2012, the London Mayoral election, the USA Presidentials and then German legislatives in 2013. By that time, Canada will probably have held another election for the sake of not being left out.

Though Canada has so many elections that they tend to blur together, the US campaign began 18 months before the election, and the French are busying themselves with candidate primaries, Spain wrapped up everything quickly. While it’s hard to distinguish one leader of Britain’s two and a half parties from another, both the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) and the People’s Party (PP) will be taken into the elections by two men with beards and nothing else in common.

Picking a candidate

In the parliamentary system, it was easy for the conservative People’s Party to choose their candidate as Mariano Rajoy, the leader of the PP and two-time election loser who appears to be third-time-lucky.

For the Socialists, however, the moment Zapatero announced that he would not run for a third term was the moment it was agreed to hold a primary. Out came the Vice President, the Government Spokesman and the Interior Minister, who all happen to be Alfredo Perez Rubalcaba; and the Defence Minister, Carme Chacón.

A week later Chacón withdrew her candidacy, supposedly on the advice of Zapatero, and a typical “challenge from the Left” came and went with indecent speed. The primaries were over before anyone had time to vote, and Rubalcaba became the Socialist candidate.

The Campaign Plan

The PSOE government, particularly Zapatero, has been heavily damaged by the economic crisis. Unsurprisingly, it is difficult for a Socialist government to contend with the particular difficulty of 20% unemployment. Although chronically unpopular, Rajoy hopes to keep quiet and stroll to an absolute majority boosted by the punishment vote.

This is why it came as a surprise when Zapatero announced the elections. Nobody had seen him for weeks. Rubalcaba, already present in his three jobs, appeared to take on the role of President as well.

By promoting Rubalcaba and hiding Zapatero, the PSOE hopes to regain its reputation for competence, a task for which Rubalcaba is uniquely qualified. As well as managing three government positions and his role as a Member of Parliament, Rubalcaba has taken part in almost every Socialist Government since the beginning of democracy.

It is hoped that Rubalcaba will be able to stop the bleeding and perhaps deprive Rajoy of his majority (from the School of Brown). Given that Rubalcaba’s task is as easy as swimming across the Pacific with a rucksack full of stones, it seems that a Socialist defeat is inevitable, but a PP victory is not. This could well be the reason Zapatero warned the young female Chacón to stand down; so that she may live to fight another day.

The election will be fought in two directions. The Socialists will use their one and only asset, Rubalcaba, who is personally more popular than Rajoy and will try to personalise the election as such. Rajoy will try to focus on presenting two brands, his PP versus the damaged PSOE.

Regardless of the election result, it is to the benefit of the PSOE that Rubalcaba is where he is. As a long-standing, popular and respected Socialist within his party, he is a stark contrast to the previously unknown Zapatero, and his political weight will be able to hold his party together. His credibility within the party and with the public is enhanced by the fact that he did not support Zapatero for the leadership, and was not one of his entourage. Rajoy, even with the wind is blowing in his direction, needs to be wary of his dagger wielding colleagues.

Zapatero announces early elections

The President of the Government of Spain, aka Prime Minister, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero today announced that Spain would hold the legislative elections on November 20th.These elections were originally going to take place in March 2012.

The Socialist (PSOE) candidate is Alfredo Rubalcaba (left) and Conservative (PP) candidate is Mariano Rajoy.

I’m going to write more analysis of both of them in the next few days with comments on the elections. However I will say that they have both been in politics and government for years. Rajoy has lead his party in Opposition for over a decade, and was a minister in the Aznar government before that. Rubalacaba has been involved in every socialist government since Gonzalez came to power in the early 80s.

All you need to know about Zapatero

Don’t be fooled by those that say the Spanish Government was a disaster.

Over at the El País newspaper, we have an excellent analysis of the 20 most important (and sometimes controversial) pieces of legislation that has been introduced by Zapatero as President of the Government of Spain since 2004.

Off you go!

Analysis: Elections in Catalunya

As predicted, the conservative CiU (Convergence and Union) won the elections in Catalunya, with the worst bofetada (literally meaning a slap in the face) ever for the PSC (Catalan Socialist Party). Mas, leader of the CiU,  is just 6 short of a majority in the Parliament of Catalunya.

Probably the best option for him is a CiU / PPC (Catalan Popular Party – a branch of the main Conservative Party in Spain) with acuerdos punctuales - a confidence and supply agreement as Mas ruled out a coalition with the PPC during the campaign. I understand CiU tried to govern with Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya once and it was a disaster – the ERC has a tendency of making trouble in government.

Supposedly, there could be a new tripartit coalition of the left, but as Socialist Leader Montilla has resigned from his seat in parliament following the elections I think it’s highly unlikely.

When the national general elections come in a few years, given the cyclical nature of Spanish politics I think the PP will win, its leader Rajoy will aim to become President of the Government and, in exchange, Mas and CiU will support him in the Congreso de los Diputados (House of Commons).

Rajoy will also be prepared to give away some friendly concessions to Catalunya to keep the CiU happy. Already the PP has dropped its anti-Catalan rhetoric.

It’s probably the beginning of a long friendship in Madrid.

Countering the Coalition 6: Conclusion, a Soft Opposition

This is without doubt a new era in politics. The end of a Labour decade, the Liberals are back in government, and of course the start of a coalition.

The Education Secretary’s disastrous mishandling over the Building Schools for the Future program posed the question of how long the government’s honeymoon will last and there are multiple factors worth considering in response. The fact that this is a coalition opposed to a single party gives the coalition a certain novelty aspect, particularly so as it follows 13 years where Labour has had extremely large majorities, meaning that the public will be more inclined to give it the benefit of the doubt.

However, the conditions that prolong the government’s honeymoon like the ‘time for a change’ feeling are likely to dissipate very quickly. As cuts begin to impact on frontline public services people will inevitably become less sympathetic, in addition to this we have had a few minor political scandals with David Laws and Chris Hunhe, and now a larger competence-based scandal surrounding Michael Gove, which will accumulate and test the public’s patience.

Labour has to act in two stages, the immediate term and then a deeper approach. The timing of this falls along two parallels, primarily with the duration of the government’s honeymoon period and secondarily the long process of the Labour Leadership election.

The Tory strategy is almost crass in its execution; Labour left us in this mess, but we are clearing it up. They gibber about the deficit and they panic over national debt, completely neglecting the economic recovery and, even more surprisingly, forgetting the massive global financial crisis that Labour had to deal with to stop the economy collapsing.

True or not, fair or not, their criticism has a bold simplicity. Our argument is more evolved than theirs which means it is more difficult to understand and therefore less popular. It operates under what I call the “Garden Shed Principle,” which is to say that normal people understand how their household finances work, and how to use bank overdrafts, and so it resonates when Cameron uses such an analogy. Nobody knows whether saving the banks is worth trillions and billions because nobody can really understand whether it is value for money. Yet the anger was so much more explosive during the expenses scandal because people know the price of a garden shed, and when an MP claims several thousand pounds for a duck house, they can see the injustice.

The solution is to disarm the government of the argument. The Tories are in the same mode as they were before the General Election in that they are trying to frame the debate around what happened in the past instead of policies for the future. We have to move the debate forward by “accepting and moving on.” Harriet Harman as acting leader is in the perfect position to act as a lightning rod and clear the ground ready for the new leader to make a fresh start without so much baggage left over from the credit crunch.

A strategy of Soft Opposition currently seems the most appropriate for Labour. My example to follow is how Zapatero conducted his party before becoming the President of the Spanish Government in 2004. His prescription was to be as calm and constructive as possible, even going so far as to offer pacts to the government of the time, which under Aznar was as equally dangerous as ours is now.

Zapatero was famous for this almost bipartisan style of opposition, for which the British public seem to have an appetite at present. Although some would suggest that the Socialist victory in Spain was as an indirect consequence of the Madrid bombings, the evidence showed a firm, slow but steady improvement for the PSOE in the polls. This is exactly the kind of foundation we need to lay over the next four years.

In contrast, the bland and non-confrontational style of Zapatero in opposition, which I must say suits perfectly all five Labour Leadership contenders, made his attacks against the government much stronger. Labour will look so much more competent and even statesmanlike than Cameron did when he was constantly on the offensive like the noise of WWI artillery.

To conclude this series, I hope that I have demonstrated some of the key features of the new government and set out a plan for Labour to proceed in opposition. The coalition showed that the Tories could not win a majority by themselves even in such favourable conditions. Labour needs to use this to our advantage in order to shrink both the Tories and the Lib Dems into a co-dependent state. The Tories lose their teeth and the Lib Dems lose their independence.

The coalition will survive for the duration of the Parliament; the conditions are right for it to last because we have seen just how willing the Lib Dems are to throw away their principles. The government is structurally sound because the Tories do not depend on the Lib Dems to be in power, but for the Lib Dems this is their only chance.

The fact that the coalition will go the distance is good for Labour as we can occupy a broader space on the centre-left. It is important to stick the other two parties together, which is why we are better off referring to John Major’s government and its divisions over the callous spending cuts of Thatcher.

In doing so, we must move away from the line that the Lib Dems betrayed their voters. If the voters feel betrayed, we cannot mock them if we want their support, this is why it is better to dismiss the Lib Dem leadership as useful idiots or even hostages in some cases, while we concentrate are arguments against a typical Tory government.

However, we do need to understand that the game we play with the Lib Dems has changed, or perhaps it would be better to say ‘exposed.’ This is why we have to resist the obvious temptation to mock their hypocrisy.

Finally, Labour needs to accept responsibility for its record in government and act accordingly. We have to show that the party is not bitter and can be constructive, but that we are always ready to right for those who need help. It is a case of picking battles carefully.

The coalition does not represent New Politics, but as the Labour Party it is our duty to come up with new ideas.

Zapatero buys time thanks to one crucial vote

I’m typing this from a hostel in Lisbon, so allow me to be brief.

As I mentioned in my previous post on the Spanish economy, the President of the Government Zapatero canceled all his appointments, meetings and visits in order to present himself to the Congress of Deputies (the Parliament).

Congress met specifically to debate the Government’s proposals to reduce the deficit, which include a cut of 1.5% in two years. A defeat could have meant the end of the government.

It passed by one vote.

Zapatero’s centre-left party, the PSOE, won all of their 169 “yes” votes against 168. It is worth noting that this was probably the most important legislative vote of the Parliament and not a single deputy (MP) was missing. Several smaller parties abstained (13 votes).

Rajoy, leader of the Spanish conservatives (el Partido Popular) was typically in character, saying that the plans were “improvised and injust” adding “Yes to reducing the deficit, but not like this.” as the plans include a cut of 5% to public sector salaries and pensions.

President Zapatero was able to leave the chamber with a smile, then, after a very tense morning. I would probably compare it to the Tuition Fees Vote that passed with a majority of 5 in the UK.

He won, and so the Spanish President has been able to buy some much needed time.