Posts Tagged "Ségolène Royal"
Sarkozy’s Seven Hurdles revisited
At the end of 2010, I wrote this article that outlined seven hurdles that Nicolas Sarkozy would have to overcome before the election in May 2012.
I thought it would be interesting to go back over them and see what has happened since then.
1. The Reshuffle
Nicolas Sarkozy’s intentions to replace his Prime Minister have been announced several times, though Francois Fillon still remains in Matignon.
Fillon has proven more difficult to get rid of than Sarkozy and his friends would like. The Prime Minister’s personal approval ratings have shown that he’s one of the most popular right-wing figures in France and notably more so than the President. As a figure of responsibility, stability and sensibility within the UMP party, he has often had to play the fireman after Sarkozy’s incendiary comments.
Nevertheless, the reshuffle will be the last chance Sarkozy has to appoint another Prime Minister and organise the team that will take him into the elections.
Fillon has survived but his stock did not rise enough to make him into a real contender, though he could be poised for 2017. It was suggested that Fillon may have ran against Sarkozy, but Fillon is clearly a very loyal man.
Fireman Fillon is now trying to put out a fire of his own making. He made an incendiary statement that Jews and Muslims should revise their outdated beliefs about slaughtering animals for food, saying that halal and kosher no longer amounts to much. He also cited a poll that claimed that the main concern of French people was the halal meat issue.
2. L’affaire Woerth that won’t go away
Like the MPs’ expenses scandal, L’affaire Woerth was a scandal that could not have come at a worse time. Just in time for the summer, it was the perfect gift to any journalist who needed to fill a front page or an editorial. Also like MPs’ Expenses, it was more of a political scandal than a judicial one as the rules were not technically broken but certainly had their structural integrity tested.
As a relatively complex financial scandal, details and speculation kept the story going. What is particularly damaging for Sarkozy is that because of its complexity, few will understand but all will disapprove. Segolene Royal called the government corrupt on prime-time news, which was then backed up by a particularly worrying poll for the President.
Though it is no longer on the front page, l’affaire Woerth still remains a motif. The last legislative item of the parliamentary term will be a law to deal with such ‘conflicts of interest’.
3. A poor economic recovery
Unemployment has always been a problem in France (several theories why) and now it’s higher than ever at around 9.5%. This contributes to a massive deficit of 8%, which means that the government won’t be able to offer any pre-election giveaways.
A piecemeal return to growth, which is unlikely to exceed 1.4% in 2010 (compare it to the 3% expected from Germany), won’t help either of these two problems.
I think this was written even before Greece was in trouble.
4. A Socialist Revival
After an extraordinary showing in March 2009 in the Regional Elections and a surprising show of unity during their party conference in La Rochelle, the media narrative of the Socialist Party has turned from a Party in terminal decline to a Party revived and ready to win the presidency for the second time in history… as long as they can find a suitable candidate.
Strauss-Khan was bumped off from the race before he even announced he was running. in fact, it may be forever unknown whether he would have run or not, were it not for the incident. Given the subsequent court appearances, the PS may well have dodged a deadly bullet wound.
The primaries were a profound success, and everybody had to acknowledge that. Far removed from the bitter and bloody duels between Martine Aubry and Segolene Royal in mid-late 2009, the primaries were a rather sporting show of a sense of purpose. François Hollande won by a clear margin with a large turnout, giving him a mandate, good media coverage, and a head start in the polls.
Hollande is not necessarily an inspirational leader, but has managed to mould his image successfully into a would-be president.
5. Pension Reform
Sarkozy’s plans to raise the legal retirement age from 65 to 67 have put him on the wrong side of the populist argument. On September the 7th, he was faced with a nationwide strike.
I can’t explain in words how serious the situation in France is at the moment, but let me try and illustrate how important the issue is. Nice, a very rich and right-wing city in the most pro-Sarkozy department in the country, saw between 20,000 and 30,000 people take to the streets. Multiply that from Lille to Toulouse, and you might get the picture.
Still an important issue and though the anger has cooled, it has not subsided. Hollande has promised to reverse the changes and put the retirement age back down to 60… for certain people who meet certain criteria.
6. Disquiet in the ranks
If Fillon caused Sarkozy some trouble by trying to put out the fire, the rest of the UMP grandees have been lighting some more matches. Three of Chirac’s Prime Ministers, Juppé, de Villepin and Raffarin have all been ready to criticise various aspects of governmental policy. It looks like the centrists in the party will not be writing Sarkozy a blank cheque any longer.
De Villepin is a candidate on a centrist platform in the election, though his polling numbers are low single figures. There are no other challenges from other UMP types. The centre in France, however, is not only electorally small but also crowded. Sarkozy moves further to the right to poach voters from Marine le Pen and her Front National.
7. The Roma and the Republic
This deserves a longer post, but Sarkozy has assaulted Marianne (the female personification of the French Republic) in his forcible deportation of the Roma. Even the Pope, the most reactionary man on the planet, has condemned the policy. Even the European Parliament, with its right-wing majority, condemned the policy in a single afternoon.
Another issue that has cooled but has left a scar. Sarkozy and a few of his ministers come back to the question of ethnicity and national identity time and time again, trying to move to the far right.
Overall, of the seven hurdles that I looked at in 2010, Sarkozy only really cleared One and Six. Numbers Two, Five, and Seven are no longer hot issues but have still left their mark, while numbers Three and Four turned out much worse for Sarkozy than he could have hoped.
The Last Lap: Seven hurdles for Sarkozy
This week marks La Rentrée, the official end of the summer and start of the political year.
This political year in particular will be important. With the Presidential elections in mid 2012, Nicolas Sarkozy is coming to the end of his first mandate, and at present his second one is by no means a fait accompli.
So to set the agenda for the coming political year, here are the 10 main hurdles Sarkozy needs to overcome as we enter the last lap of his Presidency.
1. The Reshuffle
Nicolas Sarkozy’s intentions to replace his Prime Minister have been announced several times, though Francois Fillon still remains in Matignon.
Fillon has proven more difficult to get rid of than Sarkozy and his friends would like. The Prime Minister’s personal approval ratings have shown that he’s one of the most popular right-wing figures in France and notably more so than the President. As a figure of responsibility, stability and sensibility within the UMP party, he has often had to play the fireman after Sarkozy’s incendiary comments.
Nevertheless, the reshuffle will be the last chance Sarkozy has to appoint another Prime Minister and organise the team that will take him into the elections.
2. L’affaire Woerth that won’t go away
Like the MPs’ expenses scandal, L’affaire Woerth was a scandal that could not have come at a worse time. Just in time for the summer, it was the perfect gift to any journalist who needed to fill a front page or an editorial. Also like MPs’ Expenses, it was more of a political scandal than a judicial one as the rules were not technically broken but certainly had their structural integrity tested.
As a relatively complex financial scandal, details and speculation kept the story going. What is particularly damaging for Sarkozy is that because of its complexity, few will understand but all will disapprove. Segolene Royal called the government corrupt on prime-time news, which was then backed up by a particularly worrying poll for the President.
3. A poor economic recovery
Unemployment has always been a problem in France (several theories why) and now it’s higher than ever at around 9.5%. This contributes to a massive deficit of 8%, which means that the government won’t be able to offer any pre-election giveaways.
A piecemeal return to growth, which is unlikely to exceed 1.4% in 2010 (compare it to the 3% expected from Germany), won’t help either of these two problems.
4. A Socialist Revival
After an extraordinary showing in March 2009 in the Regional Elections and a surprising show of unity during their party conference in La Rochelle, the media narrative of the Socialist Party has turned from a Party in terminal decline to a Party revived and ready to win the presidency for the second time in history… as long as they can find a suitable candidate.
5. Pension Reform
Sarkozy’s plans to raise the legal retirement age from 65 to 67 have put him on the wrong side of the populist argument. On September the 7th, he was faced with a nationwide strike.
I can’t explain in words how serious the situation in France is at the moment, but let me try and illustrate how important the issue is. Nice, a very rich and right-wing city in the most pro-Sarkozy department in the country, saw between 20,000 and 30,000 people take to the streets. Multiply that from Lille to Toulouse, and you might get the picture.
6. Disquiet in the ranks
If Fillon caused Sarkozy some trouble by trying to put out the fire, the rest of the UMP grandees have been lighting some more matches. Three of Chirac’s Prime Ministers, Juppé, de Villepin and Raffarin have all been ready to criticise various aspects of governmental policy. It looks like the centrists in the party will not be writing Sarkozy a blank cheque any longer.
7. The Roma and the Republic
This deserves a longer post, but Sarkozy has assaulted Marianne (the female personification of the French Republic) in his forcible deportation of the Roma. Even the Pope, the most reactionary man on the planet, has condemned the policy. Even the European Parliament, with its right-wing majority, condemned the policy in a single afternoon.
Let’s hope Sarkozy had a nice holiday, because he’s got his work cut out for him this year.
The Future of the Front National
Le Pen is dead, long live Le Pen! Back in March I noted that the elections to the Conseil Régional Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur would be the last time Jean-Marie Le Pen would present himself as a political candidate before retirement (here). It’s worth looking at how French fascism will cope without him.
As Jean-Marie steps down as leader, there are two candidates ready to take his place. In first position, with J-M’s backing, is his daughter Marine Le Pen, a blond 41 year old, who can carry on the family business of fascist populisum. The other contender is a man called Bruno Gollinisch, a 60 year old holocaust denier and long-time colleague of J-M.
Les Pens: Jean-Marie and Marine
Marine managed to win a decent score in March, rivalling her UMP competitor with about 19% each, which could be attributed again to the family brand and protest votes, but it remains a significant achievement.
A recent poll for Libération (the newspaper) showed that 64% of the French people believe, as Ségolene Royal (a socialist) claimed, that the government is corrupt, after a series of scandals and policy failures.
The Front was too happy to join in the condemnation, because it is this sort of discourse that they have perfected. Nobody benefits more than from the idea that the main parties are corrupt than extremists, be they Front National or Lib Dem (not that I would compare the two, since the FN never threw out their principles to join a conservative government, after all.)
Yet since 2002, the Front has never been able to repeat its surprising score in the those Presidentials. This was partly because Sarkozy moved his party and government to the right to steal some far-right votes, yet it didn’t last for long and they soon moved back home.
So although JM is on his way out, it is far too early to say that the FN has had its day. 2012 looks ever more exciting.
Ségolène Royal & the 2012 Presidentials
To my surprise, Ségolène Royal has, at least on the surface “put personal ambition aside to enable a united left.”
She claimed that she would not decide to stand alone, but would instead consult with the other main leaders of the Parti Socialiste in France, namely the Chief Secretary (leader) Martine Aubry and Dominique Strauss-Kahn, probably the best man for the job of taking out a gravely weakened Sarkozy in 2012.
On the one hand, I certainly hope it is true that she will not stand, as she is loved by some and hated by others. Personally I do not think she is the right candidate; she lost to Sarkozy in 2007 and her stock has not increased since then. Just looking at the Regional Election results, it becomes clear that the Socialists can take control of the presidency provided, as I have often said, that they can get their act together. For this, Royal is far too divisive.
It should thus be a simple task to choose the best candidate for taking on an, shall we say, emasculated, president. Royal is categorically not the right person as she does not command a broad enough coalition of support outside of her own cult within the PS. Aubry has had a much improved reputation in the media since the Regional success, but she just isn’t presidential material.
Imagine, if you will, a reverse of 2002; in the second round, instead of the UMP candidate and the Front National, we see a match between the Socialist and the Fascist.
French Regional Elections 2010: First results Update
Here are theresults for the First Round of the Regional Elections;
Parti Socialiste: 29.5%
UMP: 27%
Europe Ecologie: 12.5%
Front National: 11.7%
Front de Gauche: 6.2%
Modem: 4%
Extreme Gauche: 3.7%
Participation: VERY LOW around 46.5%
Conclusions:
- This is the worst score the UMP has ever had. Sarkozy was nowhere to be seen the entire night, and typically the Prime Minister, Francois Fillon was left holding the bag.
- Segolene Royal won 39% of the vote, evidently that’s amazing strong.
- The Greens have been able to secure their place as the third force in French Politics though they are a long way behind the Socialists, the orange MoDem people have been confined to the dustbin.
Now for the results in my regon of Provence Alpes Cote D’azur, which make for interesting reading:
Parti Socialiste: 26%
UMP: 26%
Front National: 20%
Europe Ecologie: 11%
Front de Gauche: 6.5%
So the PS and the UMP are neck and neck, which is amazing for the Left in an area like this. The Greens are able to go to the second round but I think it will be more likely that they fuse lists with the Socialists, likewise the FDG.
The FN have struck big here. One the one side you have Toulon, the most fascist town in the country, and then on top of it you have Jean-Marie Le Pen, a brand by himself. I think he enjoyed an emotional vote as it is the last time he’ll be a candidate.
It just goes to show there is still a lot to play for; but overall it was an excellent night for the Parti Socialiste.
Socialists set to win major victory
Tomorrow I return to France to help the Parti Socialiste in the Regional Elections on Sundays the 14th and the 22nd. I’ve written previously about the corner I’ll be fighting in Provence-Alpes-Cote d’Azur here and here, and more recently about the polls predicting a socialist victory here.
The lead is not restricted to PACA though, as the PS is widely expected to guard its monopoly over regional government, perhaps even taking control Alsace and Corsica as well.
Below is a map that shows the results from the previous elections in 2004, and in 1998:
Polls generally put the Socialists around two or three points ahead for the first round, and once the Greens, MoDem, and Front National parties get knocked out on Sunday, we’ll see a straightforward duel between the Parti Socialiste and the UMP.
I was generally expecting an unpleasant prognosis for the PS, as the (predicted) success is probably more despite the leadership of the party than because of it, which confirms my general perception of French Politics: decentralised campaigns for a centralised state. The PS in particular is very weak and ineffective at a national level (see the problems between Segolene Royal and Martine Aubry), yet incredibly effective at a regional and local level, there still remains many nigh-unconquerable socialist bastions.
So the PS is likely to win in spite of itself, with the real emphasis of the vote going to punish Sarkozy midway through his presidential term. His right-wing Union pour un Movement Populaire has also suffered from the disastrously explosive debate on National Identity, hijacked by far-right.
What we have seen is a huge change in media narrative. Following its paltry score of 16% in the EU Parliament elections in June, the press declared that the Parti Socialiste was now a party in terminal decline, predicting that the Greens (Les Verts) would become the new party of opposition. Instead, the storyline has reversed, and now points to a resurgence after a long period of self-reflection.
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