He was the controversial character expelled from the Parti Socialiste for some unfortunate comments he made about another PS leader.

Readers will also remember his project that I wrote about a few months ago (here) to create statues of great men in history; no doubt Georges Frêche was great in his own way.

The question is of course how this may affect the presidential candidate primaries for the Parti Socialiste. Though no longer a member, he clearly would have had an impact as such a high profile éléphant.

Edit

A reader, @CTerry1985, asked “How will his vacancy as President of a Region be filled? By-election, or simply by members of his caucus?”

As President of a Region, he will have been elected as a Regional Assembly Member as the head of the list based system. His list won the most votes, therefore his list gets a majority of Assembly Members, who then elect the President.

This means the First Vice-President will take over until the Assembly meets to elect a new President, which will probably be the 1st VP as the next name on the winning list.

John Hutton, a former Labour minister who has been appointed as “chair of a new public sector pension commission” joining Labour MP Frank Field’s appointment as a “Povery Tzar”.

Prescott called them both “Collaborators.”

A piece on LabourList (here) did not approve of such language. Au contraire, I respond.

Prescott, not always known for his eloquence, found exactly the right word.

The first note I want to make is that the comment comes just after June 18, the 70th anniversary of the “Appel du 18 juin” where General Charles de Gaulle escaped to London and made his famous speech calling for the French to resist defeat and carry on fighting. More on that later.

Nicolas Sarkozy came over to meet David Cameron to mark the occasion, which brings me on to the French connection:

When Sarkozy was first elected in 2007 as the President of France, he tried the same tactics that Cameron is using now. In a move called ouverture he attracted a few high profile Socialists into the government. Obviously and appropriately, they were expelled from the Parti Socialiste, though that was because they became proper ministers rather than committee-type people.

Although it is in the news now, it ultimately means nothing more than a quick headline grab to cause instability in the Opposition. Popular and welcome Mr Field is in the Parliamentary Labour Party (cough), his sudden change of heart (cough cough) is no great defection.

Just as for a lesson for the future, Eric Besson (a poached-socialist) is one of the most unpopular ministers in the already unpopular French government, and intellectual magazine Le Point was forced on its front page to ask of Sarkozy the question: “Is really he SO crap?”

History is brilliant.

Update: John Prescott responded this evening via Twitter to tell me he did know it.

My year abroad is officially over, as I returned to the UK on Friday.

It’s been a year of great change for me, both professionally and personally, in a time of great change in politics and society.

This explains my recent redesign.

I go back to Nice tomorrow morning to reprise my role in the Parti Socialiste, before my final year in Bath in October.

The redesign is mainly layout and branding, but it should reflect a change of focus.

So many blogs today are too cynical and miserable. Attack attack attack or, worse fact fact fact.

I think my blog has always had a european focus. That is to say, Europe, not the European Union. When I write, I try to write my “insider” perspective, having lived and worked in politics across the continent.

I’ve thus tried to use my experience to explain and inform others about the world elsewhere.

So I hope you will enjoy the new refocused blog of mine as it enters its third year of life.

Welcome “Behind Closed Doors”.

She claimed that she would not decide to stand alone, but would instead consult with the other main leaders of the Parti Socialiste in France, namely the Chief Secretary (leader) Martine Aubry and Dominique Strauss-Kahn, probably the best man for the job of taking out a gravely weakened Sarkozy in 2012.

On the one hand, I certainly hope it is true that she will not stand, as she is loved by some and hated by others. Personally I do not think she is the right candidate; she lost to Sarkozy in 2007 and her stock has not increased since then. Just looking at the Regional Election results, it becomes clear that the Socialists can take control of the presidency provided, as I have often said, that they can get their act together. For this, Royal is far too divisive.

It should thus be a simple task to choose the best candidate for taking on an, shall we say, emasculated, president. Royal is categorically not the right person as she does not command a broad enough coalition of support outside of her own cult within the PS. Aubry has had a much improved reputation in the media since the Regional success, but she just isn’t presidential material.

Imagine, if you will, a reverse of 2002; in the second round, instead of the UMP candidate and the Front National, we see a match between the Socialist and the Fascist.

Sarkozy has finally made his mark on French history, it was thanks to him the Left won its highest score since the formation of the fifth republic (1958). Isn’t it beautiful?

In PACA, I’m delighted to say we won our corner. Results from France 3, because I spent the evening in their TV studio in Nice:

Michel Vauzelle (44%)
Thierry Mariani (33%).
Jean-Marie Le Pen (23%)

Abstention dropped from around 53% last week to 48,81%

President Sarkozy will meet with Prime Minister Fillion, it is presumed he will resign. I noted last week that Fillion would be the one to jump, despite that fact it is Sarkowy who has been governing. It is rather unfair considering Fillon is more popular than Sarkozy.

A longer post will follow tommorow.

Parti Socialiste: 29.5%
UMP: 27%
Europe Ecologie: 12.5%
Front National: 11.7%
Front de Gauche: 6.2%
Modem: 4%
Extreme Gauche: 3.7%

Participation: VERY LOW around 46.5%

Conclusions:

• This is the worst score the UMP has ever had. Sarkozy was nowhere to be seen the entire night, and typically the Prime Minister, Francois Fillon was left holding the bag.
• Segolene Royal won 39% of the vote, evidently that’s amazing strong.
• The Greens have been able to secure their place as the third force in French Politics though they are a long way behind the Socialists, the orange MoDem people have been confined to the dustbin.

Now for the results in my regon of Provence Alpes Cote D’azur, which make for interesting reading:

Parti Socialiste: 26%
UMP: 26%
Front National: 20%
Europe Ecologie: 11%
Front de Gauche: 6.5%

So the PS and the UMP are neck and neck, which is amazing for the Left in an area like this. The Greens are able to go to the second round but I think it will be more likely that they fuse lists with the Socialists, likewise the FDG.

The FN have struck big here. One the one side you have Toulon, the most fascist town in the country, and then on top of it you have Jean-Marie Le Pen, a brand by himself. I think he enjoyed an emotional vote as it is the last time he’ll be a candidate.

It just goes to show there is still a lot to play for; but overall it was an excellent night for the Parti Socialiste.

The lead is not restricted to PACA though, as the PS is widely expected to guard its monopoly over regional government, perhaps even taking control Alsace and Corsica as well.

Below is a map that shows the results from the previous elections in 2004, and in 1998:

Polls generally put the Socialists around two or three points ahead for the first round, and once the Greens, MoDem, and Front National parties get knocked out on Sunday, we’ll see a straightforward duel between the Parti Socialiste and the UMP.

I was generally expecting an unpleasant prognosis for the PS, as the (predicted) success is probably more despite the leadership of the party than because of it, which confirms my general perception of French Politics: decentralised campaigns for a centralised state. The PS in particular is very weak and ineffective at a national level (see the problems between Segolene Royal and Martine Aubry), yet incredibly effective at a regional and local level, there still remains many nigh-unconquerable socialist bastions.

So the PS is likely to win in spite of itself, with the real emphasis of the vote going to punish Sarkozy midway through his presidential term. His right-wing Union pour un Movement Populaire has also suffered from the disastrously explosive debate on National Identity, hijacked by far-right.

What we have seen is a huge change in media narrative. Following its paltry score of 16% in the EU Parliament elections in June, the press declared that the Parti Socialiste was now a party in terminal decline, predicting that the Greens (Les Verts) would become the new party of opposition. Instead, the storyline has reversed, and now points to a resurgence after a long period of self-reflection.

On the 14th and 21st of March, elections for the Conseils Regionals all over France will take place.

These will be a decisive test for French politics because, as it stands, the Parti Socialiste has everything to play for. Currently, the Socialists hold an impressive 20 out of 22 regions, with Corsica and Alsace being the ones out of reach. Although Sarkozy’s right-wing UMP is looking to grab as many as it can, notably PACA, signs of success don’t look promising.

It is a peculiarity I noted during my stay, that the French Parti Socialiste is incredibly strong at a Regional (obviously) and local level. Nationally, they just can’t seem to get their act together, though I have noticed a clever and subtle branding change recently. Anyway, these elections could be the victory the PS seriously needs to turn the Press Narrative in its favour, in my analysis, the PS still has not quite reconciled itself over defeat in round one in the Presidential elections of 2002, having been beaten by Jean Marie Le Pen (Front National).

Speaking of JM Le P, this brings us neatly (it’s as if I plan and organise these articles, isn’t it?) to the elections in Provence-Alps-Cote d’Azur, a key area I worked in between June and two weeks ago.

Observe the video:

For non-francophonists, the video outlines the opinion polls in PACA. The first slide shows voting intention for the first round, depending on the results, two or three parties will go through (there are certain details, but lets call it that if the FN, as the 3rd party, get more than 10%, they go through). 30 seconds in, you see the voting intention in case of a “triangulaire”, three-way fight. At 49%, it’s good news for the socialists, despite the Greens running their own list (disruptive, non?). At 45 seconds, it shows the voting intention in case of a left-right duel, in which it’s a closer race 53:47 with the Socialists ahead. The rest of the video shows the current Président de la Région Michel Vauzelle (friend of the blog!) saying the usual “this is a good result but we mustn’t be complacent.”

I’ll be going back to France to help out the PS in PACA between the first and second rounds. In you want to learn more, click here and here to see previous relevant posts.

The row began with his defence of famous film director Roman Polanski, (arrested with charges of paedophilia) where he said that the affair was “absolutely horrifying” before launching an attack on the USA. It was suggested that Mitterrand spoke well out of turn but he claimed that he was perfectly justified to comment and that the issue was well within his culture portfolio as it is his duty “to protect great artists”.

His comments have since backfired substantially, since a passage in his autobiography that had hitherto gone unnoticed became strikingly relevant. The passage described his experiences in Thailand paying for sex with boys in brothels.

He was invited onto TF1 and given a very easy ride (TF1 is a TV channel owned by one of Sarkozy’s friends) and categorically stated that he had never committed or advocated sex with minors and condemned strongly sexual tourism.

Marine Le Pen, Jean-Marie Le Pen’s daughter, of the Front National was first to hammer Mitterrand and call for his resignation. Shortly afterwards, a few people from the Parti Socialiste came out to express their shock but stopped short of calling for his resignation.

Mitterrand responded by saying that it was an honour to encounter the wrath of the Nationalists, but it was shameful that the Socialists would disapprove. As Frédéric is the nephew of the late Socialist President François Mitterrand, it’s almost certain the Socialists are exacting their revenge because he serves in Nicolas Sarkozy’s right wing UMP government.

I think Mitterand is safe for now. He has been one of the government stars since his ‘surprise’ appointment and in his performance on TF1 he said that he had Sarkozy’s support, so it looks unlikely that he will be forced to resign. However, he has been severely damaged by the affair and his interview has not set the record straight, mainly due to his exceedingly airy and evasive (and annoying) style of speaking.

His defence was very confusing, but I think that Mitterrand will keep his job for now, but Sarkozy will be looking to get rid of him in the next reshuffle.

Below is the video where he “explains himself”, even if you can’t understand French, it’s worth looking at to see how he sounds, it’s also interesting if you skip to 11:50 he gets a bit rattled, asking the journalist “How can you ask me that question? Have you not been listening to what I’ve been saying for the last 5 minutes?”

The Parti Socialiste is not doing particularly well in Paris, mainly (though not exclusively) due to the feud between Ségolène Royal and Martine Aubry, perhaps to same extent as Blairites and Brownites.

Around November last year, the PS had a fierce internal battle between Royal and Aubry to elect the “leader” of the party. Aubry won, but very narrowly; so much so that the result is still heavily disputed, particularly with a new book written by two journalists that strongly suggest there was ”something” going on.

I was in Montpellier because my area is quite clearly Ségolèniste, being led by up-and-coming South-East MEP Vincent Peillon as well as Patrick Allemand the 1st Vice-President of the Conseil Regional PACA pictured below with Ségolène (my office is next to his, also I made his website.)

Conventional wisdom says that Ségolène is hell-bent on a rematch with Nicolas Sarkozy in 2012 after her narrow defeat in 2007. However, her prospects are looking less and less convincing. Switching positions on the proposed Carbon Tax, constant criticism of Aubry, her behaviour is increasingly erratic and poorly thought through, her humiliation over the dreadful Desirs D’avenir didn’t help matters either.

I think Ségolène should have used her time-out a lot better, and I’d argue she is less popular now that she was when she lost the Presidential Election. She appears to me to be even more disconnected with the PS than ever, almost writing it off completely as if anti-Sarkozy sentiment will be enough to create a movement of her own. I don’t see it happening.

That said, I can’t think of a single other politician who is known better by their first name. Can you?