After a safe campaign, the Right in government for ten years, and a victory in the debate against the least popular president in history, we are left with just 51.8% to show for it.

Those who said the campaign could not be lost have been proven wrong. It would be a foolish act of both naivety and wishful thinking to suggest that massive Labour gains in local elections and a Socialist victory in France signal a revival of the Left in Europe. (I don’t even need to open the Guardian to know it is saying exactly that!)

That all sounds very pessimistic, but just as I said that it was important to remember that ‘no sitting president ever lost the first round’, we must also remember that the Parti Socialiste has never won two consecutive national elections. Mitterrand was re-elected in 1988, but that was in between the cohabitations of 1986-1988 and 1993-1995.

This brings me to the legislative elections in a month’s time. It is possible, perhaps even likely, that Hollande’s victory will sufficiently mobilise left-wing voters to deliver a confident parliamentary majority. That is usually the pattern, even the tradition, of the 5th Republic, but it is difficult to see what is usual or unusual about the political climate at this time.

On the formation of the government, I said before the first round that I believe Hollande will choose the either Socialist Parliamentary Group Leader, Jean-Marc Ayrault or Martine Aubry as prime minister, with Moscovici becoming Secretary General of the Elysée.

Polls have already circulated over whether Hollande should invite the Greens, the Front de Gauche (the Reds) or the centrists into the government. Deals have been done in the legislatives to hand safe seats to the Greens, and given the fact that Eva Joly won around 2% in Round 1 it might have seemed unnecessary.

A PS-Green deal should work well for both parties. Hollande will need a strong Green Group in the Assemblée so that the PS does not seem too dominant. For the first time ever, the PS will control the Presidency, the Sénat, possibly the Assemblée, 21 or 22 regions, most départements and plenty of mayors. Hollande will be glad to have the Greens as human shields and the Greens will be happy to be able to weigh in on the national debate more seriously. Contrast this with the fact that, if Hollande were to work with the Front de Gauche, Jean-Luc Melenchon would constantly be outbidding Hollande for more spending and tax rises in a way that the Greens could not.

With a score of 51.8%, and a turnout of 80%, I cannot see where any new left-wing votes will come from. It is worth remembering that 7% voted blank yesterday. Whether that was a vote for ‘none of the above’ or an indication of Marine Le Pen’s power over the far right remains to be seen, but there are two million blank voters out there who are lurking quietly in the wings.

Now that Sarkozy has supposedly quit politics (to work on his son’s career), there is a power vacuum in the UMP. Jean François Copé is set to lead and has been positioning himself accordingly for months. Meanwhile, François Fillion remains popular within the party. Recently, I noted that Copé has proposed to reinstate official courants (i.e. factions), meaning that the UMP is beginning to look remarkably similar to the grotesque chaos of the Parti Socialiste after Jospin in 2002.

Sarkozy’s greatest failure, more long lasting than all the other failures, is the revival of the Front National. This is good for the Left and simultaneously bad for the Republic.

It is good for the Left because Marine Le Pen has given instructions that, should FN candidates qualify for the second round in a parliamentary constituency, they are to stay in the race against the PS and the UMP candidate. The FN will thus split the right wing vote and let the PS slip in. Hollande’s majority will come from tricking the system rather than new voters, hence why the PS-Green alliance will be successful.

It is bad for the Republic because it has made the UMP move to the Right and therefore the border between the UMP and the FN more porous. For a short term and unstable political gain, Sarkozy has alienated or killed off the last of the Gaullist Republicans. That is why former President Chirac and former Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin returned for their final revenge against Sarkozy. If the UMP does suffer heavy losses in the legislatives, the hard-right heirs to Sarkozy will do what would have been unthinkable for Chirac and form an alliance with the FN. It will be secretive at first, then informal, and then could permanently restructure the right. That is to be lamented.

In conclusion, though there are still mountains to climb and clouds on the horizon there are still reasons to be cheerful. The Republic has won its second Socialist President, and that can only be good for democracy.

Hollande leads with 28.63%
Sarkozy comes out with 27.08% (slightly better than the estimations that had him on 26.5).
Marine Le Pen sets a new record on 18.01%
Melenchon ends up with 11.13% (significantly less than the polls suggested, but an impressive performance having started at 5%)
Bayrou in the centre gets 9.11%
Joly (Greens) gets a poor 2.28%

Libération has the best and most interactive results gadget here but the FranceTV one can be embedded:

Rue89 calls the second round for Hollande, claiming that ‘there is no way Sarkozy can win’ (French).

I am much less optimistic. Not least because of my philosophy ‘If the PS can find a way to lose, it will.’

Hollande is the leader, which is better than I was expecting but 2% is not as high as I would like in order to feel comfortable. With two weeks to go he will be forced to define his ideas more clearly, and there is little to gain from debating with Sarkozy. Sarkozy proposed 3 debates last night, Hollande has refused two of them. Sarkozy will portray this as recognition of inexperience.

Sarkozy’s lurch to the far right has failed, but still remains his only hope. Analysts give Sarkozy a maximum reserve of 60% of the FN vote, and about 30% of the Bayrou vote.

The international press will focus on the Le Pen vote (only thing that seems to interest non-anaorak foreigners – if you are reading this, congratulations, you are in the anorak club). My question is, ‘What happened to Melenchon’s people?’ They didn’t go to Hollande at the last minute, they didn’t go back to the greens (polls were accurate on those two accounts), and they didn’t stay at home given 80% turnout.  Is it possibly that the crusty left lurched to the far right? Extremes meet.

Melenchon’s disappointing 11% score does not, in my view, give Hollande a very secure reserve as 15% would have done. The mysterious ‘dynamique’ that Hollande will get from leading in Round 1 will have to be translated into support from non-supporters. Perhaps Sarkozy’s far-right strategy will scare off enough centrists? It might, but it probably wouldn’t matter.

That said, my PS friends point to the fact that the Left is very high compared to normal (I didn’t want to upset them by saying Jospin came first in 1995 and still lost in the second round).

Before the results were in last night, a second round poll was conducted giving Hollande 54 and Sarkozy 46. Encouraging, but I don’t buy it will two weeks to go.

Overal, the next two weeks will not take place in the centre. Both Sarkozy and Hollande will have to try and pick apart the FN; a very unpleasant direction.

Alors je flippe.

The question is thus, who will he choose as Prime Minister? When asked about the subject, Hollande’s response is to say that ‘No decision has been made. We haven’t won anything yet.’

He’s right. Not because he hasn’t thought about it yet, but because it is dependant on the first round.

Why does the President need a Prime Minister?

France, the 5th Republic, is a semi-presidential system, half-way between the USA’s presidential structure and the UK’s parliamentary one.

When Charles de Gaulle created the 5th Republic in 1958 in his own likeness, the President was to act like an elected monarch who would incarnate the Republic and represent France in human form. His special remit, known as the ‘reserved domain’ was defence and foreign policy. The rest of the day-to-day workings of the government were left to a Prime Minister, appointed by the President.

So while the President was supposed to be above politics, François Mitterrand decided to be a bit more ‘hands-on’, Nicolas Sarkozy was even more so.

François Hollande says that he intends to let the Prime Minister and the government get on with things. A common phrase he uses, referring to Sarkozy:

The President is the Head of State. You cannot be the Head of State and Head of the Majority and Head of a Party or a clan. You cannot be the head of everything and responsible for nothing.

This quotation is very relevant to Hollande’s choice of Prime Minister.

How about Pierre Moscovici?

Moscovici is Hollande’s campaign director, therefore his natural Number 2. However, I don’t think he will be named Prime Minister. I would imagine that he’ll become Secretary General of the Elysée (the presidential palace), very similar to a Chief of Staff. That’s the role he has played thus far anyway.

So who does Hollande want?

In Hollande’s ideal situation, I think he would appoint Jean-Marc Ayrault. Ayraut has a special place on the campaign team’s organigram, occupying his own special category of ‘Special Advisor’.

He is the leader of the Socialist group in the National Assembly and, depending on the results of the legislative elections, the Head of the Majority. A natural position from which he could become Prime Minister.

What will the deciding factor be?

Simply put: Jean-Luc Melenchon. François Hollande will have to look at the Front de Gauche score in the first round very carefully and consider his position.

Hollande has said ‘the government will be Socialist’, implying that there would be no ouverture to other parties like Sarkozy (and Gordon Brown) did in 2007. However, if Melenchon does particularly well (as some polls suggested earlier but later ones contradict) then Hollande’s hand will be guided towards Martine Aubry as a gesture to the left.

Aubry succeeded Hollande as Head of the Party, and was his main contender in the primaries. However, despite the mild rivalry, there is not the same vitriol as there was between Aubry and Ségolène Royal in 2009. I see no reason why they would not work well together.

So in a sentence, it’s between Ayrault and Aubry, mainly depending on Melenchon’s score. That’s my intuition. However, Harlem Désir, who was acting First Secretary of the party during the primaries because Aubry was a candidate, will want to take on the party leadership full time. Will Aubry, who was a minister in the last Socialist government, settle for anything less this time around?

As I did with the posters, I’m going to look at each video in turn. They are all about 1m 30s (there is also a longer 3m version but they don’t seem to have been released yet). I’m also going to assume that you may not necessarily understand French. If you don’t, it could well be a bonus because you’ll get a good feel of each style.

1. Nicolas Sarkozy

The video chimes well with the campaign. Sarkozy is centre stage in front of a clear blue sky. Sarko looks straight into the camera, with a few zooms in and out so that people don’t get bored. Simple, and not remotely flashy, to try and get away from the bling-bling image. It cuts at the end to a rally in which he states, ‘I need you!’ as he has constantly pleased for help over the last five years. Plenty of French flags waving about, of course. I would have thought that Sarko would bring out some fireworks as a ‘here goes nothing’ attempt, but in fact he has tried to come across as a very serious incumbent.

2. François Hollande
(I am working in the same order as the posters, but I suggest you watch the others before this one.)

Wow! Some have said the Hollande campaign has been boring, but this is a real gear change. Nothing new exactly, as the clip is an excerpt from the Bourget speech, where he launched the campaign in January, but I get the impression that the stakes have been very much raised. We are hit hard  immediately with a powerful statement, ‘Every nation has a soul! The soul of France is equality!’ evoking all the images of equality in French history. This, sneakily and cleverly, poaches General de Gaulle, the hero of France (and man of the Right). The Revolution, the Third Republic, the Front Populaire, General de Gaulle, François Mitterrand, Lionel Jospin: The left can govern!  The (pipe organ!) music, the shouting, the hysteria of the crowd, the montage, it’s like a trailer for the most dramatic, action packed film ever to have been filmed. Justice NOW! Hope NOW!  Change NOW! I think it is also significant that it ends with Vive la République, vive la France!’ 

3. Jean-Luc Melenchon

There’s something really charming about this clip. The music is subdued but upbeat, with a faint marching drum in the background. Much of the clip is JLM on the left hand side of the screen (remember Sarkozy in the centre) in front of his red background. It’s as if his poster came to life. He gives us a little lesson about his program with cute little facts on the right hand side.

It ends with a clip from one of his rallies. Red background, red tie, red flags, the outstretched fist; I thought for a moment I saw a hammer and sickle at 00:49 but I was mistaken. A quick montage of various JLM supporters, including a group of (presumably communist) mayors, then a greater focus on the crowd itself rather than the candidate. For a split second at 3:01 there is a brilliant shot of JLM looking off into the distance, presidentially. It might be my imagination, but at 3:04 there is a very soviet building hidden behind a flag. Not a single tricolor in sight though. The huge crowd at the end is something for which he deserves credit, too.

4. Marine Le Pen

The Front National clip is almost suspiciously similar to Sarkozy’s. Marine Le Pen is centre stage in front of a light blue background (you might even say a marine blue background!) and immediately starts sounding off about this and that. Shouting, not in a passionate way but with trademark indignation, the very first sentence is a snide and sarcastic snap at Sarkozy. However, nothing about immigrants (for once) but she still talks about how the political classes have abandoned the people. A lot about petrol prices too. Weird.

Did you notice? There are no cuts, no zooming in or out, no images, just her in one streaming rant. The end of her clip feels as if she has been cut off rather than coming to a conclusion. More significantly, and the direct opposite of Melenchon (unsurprising), there is not a single other person in the video. No crowd, no supporters, nobody. She is all alone.

5. François Bayrou

Like Bayrou himself, the clip is a funny mix of all the others. It’s hard to take anything in once you notice the background. He starts off talking to the camera (slightly to the left) in front of a moving background of clouds in the sky. Suddenly it cuts away and he’s standing in the same position, saying the same sentence, but now he’s in front of a lake! He’s suddenly changed position! Interspersed with chatting to people in the street. Then the background changes again.

6. Eva Joly

From the ‘a bit funny’ to the downright strange. The Green Grandma’s ad just comes across as peculiar. For a start, she’s wearing those green glasses. You know, the ones she never wears. Really, just google images ‘Eva Joly’ and you will find that her trademark glasses are red.

Apart from that, she is sitting in a TV studio, which only highlight how artificial the clip is (rather than showing ‘honesty’ or ‘breaking the fourth wall’). I think the weirdest part is that she is sitting in a TV studio writing to France as if the country was her grandchild, (others might say it was her will, but I won’t get into that.) The music is saccharin Suddenly, she is in front of the camera but reading from something off screen. Then it changes angle and she’s looking off to the side. Then there are three of her! Then someone throws down a beat and she starts rapping. There is nothing about this that works, I would say it’s a parody but I can’t think what it could possibly be trying to parody.

7/8/9/10. The Rest

You can watch the other clips for Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (almost identical to Sarkozy’s clip, but with a bit of drama about a tree thrown in at the end), Nathalie Arthaud (filmed in her garage), Philippe Poutou (who wanders around town looking for someone to talk to) and Jaques Cheminade (who lives in 1995) by clicking on their names. They might be nice to watch once but they are quite inconsequential.

One of the many things I like about French political culture is their use of posters. Outside every polling station you will find the panneaux électoraux (election panels), where each candidate is assigned a numbered panel on which they are permitted to place their poster.

In the same way I discussed a local election I was involved in (here) I am going to examine each candidate in the French Presidential elections and comment on their campaign through the medium of their posters. In the spirit of fairness, I will follow the order of the latest polling for first-round voting intentions.

A common theme I have noticed, looking at them all, is the lack of party logos and even the lack of the candidate’s name.

1. Nicolas Sarkozy, UMP

The incumbent, often referred to as ‘the outgoing candidate’ by his main rival. Sarkozy looks much more serious than he did five years ago. This took about half an hour to be ruthlessly parodied (more on parodies here). A blue sky giving way to sunset, with Sarkozy looking out to sea might convey calm, until you discover that far from the cote d’azur, the picture was taken from the Aegean Sea.

Sarkozy announced his candidacy and came to the race late. This was most likely a ploy to generate media coverage, or rather take it away from others, and create a will-he-won’t-he narrative. That fits in with the style of the campaign, summed up in his constant refrains of ‘help me’ ‘being President is hard. That surprised nobody, as François Hollande said on the same evening as when Sarkozy declared his candidacy, ‘So we have now heard that the President-Candidate is now the Candidate-President!

Nevertheless, Sarkozy is a first-rate campaigner and will fight to the bitter end. La France Forte was also the slogan of another one-term president, Giscard d’Estaing (poster), who, in a cruel foreshadowing of history, lost to another Socialist called François.

2. François Hollande, Parti Socialiste

Everything about this image is designed to convey consistency and stability. The campaign walks a tightrope trying to be left enough to appeal to the base while appearing ‘safe’ enough to be entrusted with power. The blue suit, tie, and sky mimic Sarkozy’s typical style, while Hollande is one of the few candidates to look the voters in the eye, face on. The background of a rural, typical French village only adds to the down-to-earth ‘trust me’ theme. There is, at least, a bit of a smile, but nothing revolutionary.

Hollande has been in the race longer than anybody else. Almost a year ago, he announced he was running for the primaries to become the Socialist candidate before the election campaign. His nickname used to be ‘Flanby’ a French brand of flan, because he’s boring. However, if you have watched and listened to his speeches, I doubt you would consider him boring. He also has the bonus of being the only candidate I have met personally.

3. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Front de Gauche

JLM came from almost nowhere to become a real player in the campaign rising to third place and hence ‘best of the rest’, despite all the hysteria (that I warned against) about the rise of Marine Le Pen. Though his programme is not overly different to that of Hollande, he is free to be a great deal more revolutionary in his rhetoric, rising to 15% at Hollande’s expense, allowing Sarkozy to eek ahead in the first round. JLM has become the master of the big rallies, his indignant style of oratory hitting home with those most hurt by the crisis.

JLM looks off into the distance in front of a beautiful shade of red (matching the tie) that comes across as frankly Leninist. The text is a verb conjugation that is an order to the reader, while the candidate’s name is very small at the bottom.

4. Marine Le Pen, Front National

MLP’s campaign seems to have floundered somewhat (see here for background), despite the presence of classic themes like immigration and Europe which should be low-hanging fruit for the far right. Perhaps Sarkozy’s strategy of lurching to the right is working after all?

Again, no mention of either name or party. The obligatory flag is clear and the OUI tries to be positive, as does the general lighting, with Marine in a different pose to all the other candidates. Everything is done to distance herself from not only the other parties, but her own as well.

5. François Bayrou, Modem

Bayrou is nowhere near as important as he was in 2007 where he managed to pick up the ‘neither him or her’ vote, despite managing about 10%. A centrist, in the Lib Dem sense of the word (i.e. right leaning) from whom Sarkozy has tried to pinch a few votes too. Very little to say really. At least he’s smiling.

6. Eva Joly, EELV

The Greens debated whether to put up a candidate or not. Given that Joly is at 2%, it looks like they should have not, instead negotiating an agreement with Hollande. Poor Joly, who is a weak candidate anyway, recently fell down some stairs and was hospitalised. The poster, ‘The real change’ is a likely dig at Hollande’s change campaign.

The odd thing about this poster is that her glasses have been photoshopped green to match her party, whereas in reality they are always red.

7. The Rest under 1%

French media still runs under an old-fashioned rule about giving each candidate equal time for coverage, despite an obvious disparity between the above and the below. I don’t though, so here you have the remaining candidates who really needn’t have bothered:

Nathalie Arthaud

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

 

Phillipe Poutou

Jaques Cheminade, I couldn't find anything but his poster from 1995

So there you have the ten candidates for the 22 April, where the two who come out on top go through to a second round on May 6th.

He was the controversial character expelled from the Parti Socialiste for some unfortunate comments he made about another PS leader.

Readers will also remember his project that I wrote about a few months ago (here) to create statues of great men in history; no doubt Georges Frêche was great in his own way.

The question is of course how this may affect the presidential candidate primaries for the Parti Socialiste. Though no longer a member, he clearly would have had an impact as such a high profile éléphant.

Edit

A reader, @CTerry1985, asked “How will his vacancy as President of a Region be filled? By-election, or simply by members of his caucus?”

As President of a Region, he will have been elected as a Regional Assembly Member as the head of the list based system. His list won the most votes, therefore his list gets a majority of Assembly Members, who then elect the President.

This means the First Vice-President will take over until the Assembly meets to elect a new President, which will probably be the 1st VP as the next name on the winning list.

John Hutton, a former Labour minister who has been appointed as “chair of a new public sector pension commission” joining Labour MP Frank Field’s appointment as a “Povery Tzar”.

Prescott called them both “Collaborators.”

A piece on LabourList (here) did not approve of such language. Au contraire, I respond.

Prescott, not always known for his eloquence, found exactly the right word.

The first note I want to make is that the comment comes just after June 18, the 70th anniversary of the “Appel du 18 juin” where General Charles de Gaulle escaped to London and made his famous speech calling for the French to resist defeat and carry on fighting. More on that later.

Nicolas Sarkozy came over to meet David Cameron to mark the occasion, which brings me on to the French connection:

When Sarkozy was first elected in 2007 as the President of France, he tried the same tactics that Cameron is using now. In a move called ouverture he attracted a few high profile Socialists into the government. Obviously and appropriately, they were expelled from the Parti Socialiste, though that was because they became proper ministers rather than committee-type people.

Although it is in the news now, it ultimately means nothing more than a quick headline grab to cause instability in the Opposition. Popular and welcome Mr Field is in the Parliamentary Labour Party (cough), his sudden change of heart (cough cough) is no great defection.

Just as for a lesson for the future, Eric Besson (a poached-socialist) is one of the most unpopular ministers in the already unpopular French government, and intellectual magazine Le Point was forced on its front page to ask of Sarkozy the question: “Is really he SO crap?”

History is brilliant.

Update: John Prescott responded this evening via Twitter to tell me he did know it.

My year abroad is officially over, as I returned to the UK on Friday.

It’s been a year of great change for me, both professionally and personally, in a time of great change in politics and society.

This explains my recent redesign.

I go back to Nice tomorrow morning to reprise my role in the Parti Socialiste, before my final year in Bath in October.

The redesign is mainly layout and branding, but it should reflect a change of focus.

So many blogs today are too cynical and miserable. Attack attack attack or, worse fact fact fact.

I think my blog has always had a european focus. That is to say, Europe, not the European Union. When I write, I try to write my “insider” perspective, having lived and worked in politics across the continent.

I’ve thus tried to use my experience to explain and inform others about the world elsewhere.

So I hope you will enjoy the new refocused blog of mine as it enters its third year of life.

Welcome “Behind Closed Doors”.

She claimed that she would not decide to stand alone, but would instead consult with the other main leaders of the Parti Socialiste in France, namely the Chief Secretary (leader) Martine Aubry and Dominique Strauss-Kahn, probably the best man for the job of taking out a gravely weakened Sarkozy in 2012.

On the one hand, I certainly hope it is true that she will not stand, as she is loved by some and hated by others. Personally I do not think she is the right candidate; she lost to Sarkozy in 2007 and her stock has not increased since then. Just looking at the Regional Election results, it becomes clear that the Socialists can take control of the presidency provided, as I have often said, that they can get their act together. For this, Royal is far too divisive.

It should thus be a simple task to choose the best candidate for taking on an, shall we say, emasculated, president. Royal is categorically not the right person as she does not command a broad enough coalition of support outside of her own cult within the PS. Aubry has had a much improved reputation in the media since the Regional success, but she just isn’t presidential material.

Imagine, if you will, a reverse of 2002; in the second round, instead of the UMP candidate and the Front National, we see a match between the Socialist and the Fascist.

Sarkozy has finally made his mark on French history, it was thanks to him the Left won its highest score since the formation of the fifth republic (1958). Isn’t it beautiful?

In PACA, I’m delighted to say we won our corner. Results from France 3, because I spent the evening in their TV studio in Nice:

Michel Vauzelle (44%)
Thierry Mariani (33%).
Jean-Marie Le Pen (23%)

Abstention dropped from around 53% last week to 48,81%

President Sarkozy will meet with Prime Minister Fillion, it is presumed he will resign. I noted last week that Fillion would be the one to jump, despite that fact it is Sarkowy who has been governing. It is rather unfair considering Fillon is more popular than Sarkozy.

A longer post will follow tommorow.