After a safe campaign, the Right in government for ten years, and a victory in the debate against the least popular president in history, we are left with just 51.8% to show for it.

Those who said the campaign could not be lost have been proven wrong. It would be a foolish act of both naivety and wishful thinking to suggest that massive Labour gains in local elections and a Socialist victory in France signal a revival of the Left in Europe. (I don’t even need to open the Guardian to know it is saying exactly that!)

That all sounds very pessimistic, but just as I said that it was important to remember that ‘no sitting president ever lost the first round’, we must also remember that the Parti Socialiste has never won two consecutive national elections. Mitterrand was re-elected in 1988, but that was in between the cohabitations of 1986-1988 and 1993-1995.

This brings me to the legislative elections in a month’s time. It is possible, perhaps even likely, that Hollande’s victory will sufficiently mobilise left-wing voters to deliver a confident parliamentary majority. That is usually the pattern, even the tradition, of the 5th Republic, but it is difficult to see what is usual or unusual about the political climate at this time.

On the formation of the government, I said before the first round that I believe Hollande will choose the either Socialist Parliamentary Group Leader, Jean-Marc Ayrault or Martine Aubry as prime minister, with Moscovici becoming Secretary General of the Elysée.

Polls have already circulated over whether Hollande should invite the Greens, the Front de Gauche (the Reds) or the centrists into the government. Deals have been done in the legislatives to hand safe seats to the Greens, and given the fact that Eva Joly won around 2% in Round 1 it might have seemed unnecessary.

A PS-Green deal should work well for both parties. Hollande will need a strong Green Group in the Assemblée so that the PS does not seem too dominant. For the first time ever, the PS will control the Presidency, the Sénat, possibly the Assemblée, 21 or 22 regions, most départements and plenty of mayors. Hollande will be glad to have the Greens as human shields and the Greens will be happy to be able to weigh in on the national debate more seriously. Contrast this with the fact that, if Hollande were to work with the Front de Gauche, Jean-Luc Melenchon would constantly be outbidding Hollande for more spending and tax rises in a way that the Greens could not.

With a score of 51.8%, and a turnout of 80%, I cannot see where any new left-wing votes will come from. It is worth remembering that 7% voted blank yesterday. Whether that was a vote for ‘none of the above’ or an indication of Marine Le Pen’s power over the far right remains to be seen, but there are two million blank voters out there who are lurking quietly in the wings.

Now that Sarkozy has supposedly quit politics (to work on his son’s career), there is a power vacuum in the UMP. Jean François Copé is set to lead and has been positioning himself accordingly for months. Meanwhile, François Fillion remains popular within the party. Recently, I noted that Copé has proposed to reinstate official courants (i.e. factions), meaning that the UMP is beginning to look remarkably similar to the grotesque chaos of the Parti Socialiste after Jospin in 2002.

Sarkozy’s greatest failure, more long lasting than all the other failures, is the revival of the Front National. This is good for the Left and simultaneously bad for the Republic.

It is good for the Left because Marine Le Pen has given instructions that, should FN candidates qualify for the second round in a parliamentary constituency, they are to stay in the race against the PS and the UMP candidate. The FN will thus split the right wing vote and let the PS slip in. Hollande’s majority will come from tricking the system rather than new voters, hence why the PS-Green alliance will be successful.

It is bad for the Republic because it has made the UMP move to the Right and therefore the border between the UMP and the FN more porous. For a short term and unstable political gain, Sarkozy has alienated or killed off the last of the Gaullist Republicans. That is why former President Chirac and former Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin returned for their final revenge against Sarkozy. If the UMP does suffer heavy losses in the legislatives, the hard-right heirs to Sarkozy will do what would have been unthinkable for Chirac and form an alliance with the FN. It will be secretive at first, then informal, and then could permanently restructure the right. That is to be lamented.

In conclusion, though there are still mountains to climb and clouds on the horizon there are still reasons to be cheerful. The Republic has won its second Socialist President, and that can only be good for democracy.

Le Pen is compatible with the Republic.

Now I am given to understand, in the name of fairness, that Sarkozy actually said that the Front National is compatible with the Republic, rather than Le Pen. It also doesn’t specify which Le Pen (junior or senior?). With 18% of the vote, I could understand the point he could have made, but it’s a very transparent scramble for last-minute votes.

Regardless, all the French people I know (bearing in mind 95% of them are Socialists) are deeply upset. My social networks were peppered with the word honteux – shameful.

A profoundly anti-republican party is now deemed compatible with the Republic by the (outgoing) President of the Republic. The French have a great word banalisation for which we have to direct translation in English (the French love nouns for everything). It’s an idea to describe to process of making something everyday or commonplace. The closest I can get is a phrase like ‘thin end of the wedge’ or ‘slippery slope’.

Overall, I said Sarkozy would dash to the right, and he has done so in the least tasteful way possible.

Honteux.

Hollande leads with 28.63%
Sarkozy comes out with 27.08% (slightly better than the estimations that had him on 26.5).
Marine Le Pen sets a new record on 18.01%
Melenchon ends up with 11.13% (significantly less than the polls suggested, but an impressive performance having started at 5%)
Bayrou in the centre gets 9.11%
Joly (Greens) gets a poor 2.28%

Libération has the best and most interactive results gadget here but the FranceTV one can be embedded:

Rue89 calls the second round for Hollande, claiming that ‘there is no way Sarkozy can win’ (French).

I am much less optimistic. Not least because of my philosophy ‘If the PS can find a way to lose, it will.’

Hollande is the leader, which is better than I was expecting but 2% is not as high as I would like in order to feel comfortable. With two weeks to go he will be forced to define his ideas more clearly, and there is little to gain from debating with Sarkozy. Sarkozy proposed 3 debates last night, Hollande has refused two of them. Sarkozy will portray this as recognition of inexperience.

Sarkozy’s lurch to the far right has failed, but still remains his only hope. Analysts give Sarkozy a maximum reserve of 60% of the FN vote, and about 30% of the Bayrou vote.

The international press will focus on the Le Pen vote (only thing that seems to interest non-anaorak foreigners – if you are reading this, congratulations, you are in the anorak club). My question is, ‘What happened to Melenchon’s people?’ They didn’t go to Hollande at the last minute, they didn’t go back to the greens (polls were accurate on those two accounts), and they didn’t stay at home given 80% turnout.  Is it possibly that the crusty left lurched to the far right? Extremes meet.

Melenchon’s disappointing 11% score does not, in my view, give Hollande a very secure reserve as 15% would have done. The mysterious ‘dynamique’ that Hollande will get from leading in Round 1 will have to be translated into support from non-supporters. Perhaps Sarkozy’s far-right strategy will scare off enough centrists? It might, but it probably wouldn’t matter.

That said, my PS friends point to the fact that the Left is very high compared to normal (I didn’t want to upset them by saying Jospin came first in 1995 and still lost in the second round).

Before the results were in last night, a second round poll was conducted giving Hollande 54 and Sarkozy 46. Encouraging, but I don’t buy it will two weeks to go.

Overal, the next two weeks will not take place in the centre. Both Sarkozy and Hollande will have to try and pick apart the FN; a very unpleasant direction.

Alors je flippe.

Rather, Chirac’s ghostwriter has said as much. Given that Chirac himself is unlikely to make any public appearances, the writer’s indiscreet comments can be taken (and has been taken) as a deliberate and final stab of revenge against Sarkozy.

France 24 has an article in French detailing additional ‘defections’ from Sarkozy to Hollande, mainly in the ranks of the disappointed (Chirac supporters who are unhappy with Sarkozy’s record) and this dis-appointed (Sarkozy’s ex-ministers).

Whether Chirac will vote Hollande or not is almost irrelevant. It is a secret ballot after all. The point is that the press have reported as much and the two parties have to deal with it. Hollande’s team is delighted, collecting yet another endorsement and pointing out that his is bringing in people outside of his own Socialist camp. Sarkozy is less happy, saying that it is unfair to take advantage of Chirac who is old and ‘going through personal difficulties’, implying that he’s a mad old coot who can no longer be taken seriously.

Additionally, Hollande is back on top in the first round. That’s quite incredible. In an amusing illustration of the election, both Hollande and Sarkozy held huge meetings either side of Paris (former in the East and latter in the West) on April 15.

Only four days to go.

As I did with the posters, I’m going to look at each video in turn. They are all about 1m 30s (there is also a longer 3m version but they don’t seem to have been released yet). I’m also going to assume that you may not necessarily understand French. If you don’t, it could well be a bonus because you’ll get a good feel of each style.

1. Nicolas Sarkozy

The video chimes well with the campaign. Sarkozy is centre stage in front of a clear blue sky. Sarko looks straight into the camera, with a few zooms in and out so that people don’t get bored. Simple, and not remotely flashy, to try and get away from the bling-bling image. It cuts at the end to a rally in which he states, ‘I need you!’ as he has constantly pleased for help over the last five years. Plenty of French flags waving about, of course. I would have thought that Sarko would bring out some fireworks as a ‘here goes nothing’ attempt, but in fact he has tried to come across as a very serious incumbent.

2. François Hollande
(I am working in the same order as the posters, but I suggest you watch the others before this one.)

Wow! Some have said the Hollande campaign has been boring, but this is a real gear change. Nothing new exactly, as the clip is an excerpt from the Bourget speech, where he launched the campaign in January, but I get the impression that the stakes have been very much raised. We are hit hard  immediately with a powerful statement, ‘Every nation has a soul! The soul of France is equality!’ evoking all the images of equality in French history. This, sneakily and cleverly, poaches General de Gaulle, the hero of France (and man of the Right). The Revolution, the Third Republic, the Front Populaire, General de Gaulle, François Mitterrand, Lionel Jospin: The left can govern!  The (pipe organ!) music, the shouting, the hysteria of the crowd, the montage, it’s like a trailer for the most dramatic, action packed film ever to have been filmed. Justice NOW! Hope NOW!  Change NOW! I think it is also significant that it ends with Vive la République, vive la France!’ 

3. Jean-Luc Melenchon

There’s something really charming about this clip. The music is subdued but upbeat, with a faint marching drum in the background. Much of the clip is JLM on the left hand side of the screen (remember Sarkozy in the centre) in front of his red background. It’s as if his poster came to life. He gives us a little lesson about his program with cute little facts on the right hand side.

It ends with a clip from one of his rallies. Red background, red tie, red flags, the outstretched fist; I thought for a moment I saw a hammer and sickle at 00:49 but I was mistaken. A quick montage of various JLM supporters, including a group of (presumably communist) mayors, then a greater focus on the crowd itself rather than the candidate. For a split second at 3:01 there is a brilliant shot of JLM looking off into the distance, presidentially. It might be my imagination, but at 3:04 there is a very soviet building hidden behind a flag. Not a single tricolor in sight though. The huge crowd at the end is something for which he deserves credit, too.

4. Marine Le Pen

The Front National clip is almost suspiciously similar to Sarkozy’s. Marine Le Pen is centre stage in front of a light blue background (you might even say a marine blue background!) and immediately starts sounding off about this and that. Shouting, not in a passionate way but with trademark indignation, the very first sentence is a snide and sarcastic snap at Sarkozy. However, nothing about immigrants (for once) but she still talks about how the political classes have abandoned the people. A lot about petrol prices too. Weird.

Did you notice? There are no cuts, no zooming in or out, no images, just her in one streaming rant. The end of her clip feels as if she has been cut off rather than coming to a conclusion. More significantly, and the direct opposite of Melenchon (unsurprising), there is not a single other person in the video. No crowd, no supporters, nobody. She is all alone.

5. François Bayrou

Like Bayrou himself, the clip is a funny mix of all the others. It’s hard to take anything in once you notice the background. He starts off talking to the camera (slightly to the left) in front of a moving background of clouds in the sky. Suddenly it cuts away and he’s standing in the same position, saying the same sentence, but now he’s in front of a lake! He’s suddenly changed position! Interspersed with chatting to people in the street. Then the background changes again.

6. Eva Joly

From the ‘a bit funny’ to the downright strange. The Green Grandma’s ad just comes across as peculiar. For a start, she’s wearing those green glasses. You know, the ones she never wears. Really, just google images ‘Eva Joly’ and you will find that her trademark glasses are red.

Apart from that, she is sitting in a TV studio, which only highlight how artificial the clip is (rather than showing ‘honesty’ or ‘breaking the fourth wall’). I think the weirdest part is that she is sitting in a TV studio writing to France as if the country was her grandchild, (others might say it was her will, but I won’t get into that.) The music is saccharin Suddenly, she is in front of the camera but reading from something off screen. Then it changes angle and she’s looking off to the side. Then there are three of her! Then someone throws down a beat and she starts rapping. There is nothing about this that works, I would say it’s a parody but I can’t think what it could possibly be trying to parody.

7/8/9/10. The Rest

You can watch the other clips for Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (almost identical to Sarkozy’s clip, but with a bit of drama about a tree thrown in at the end), Nathalie Arthaud (filmed in her garage), Philippe Poutou (who wanders around town looking for someone to talk to) and Jaques Cheminade (who lives in 1995) by clicking on their names. They might be nice to watch once but they are quite inconsequential.

One of the many things I like about French political culture is their use of posters. Outside every polling station you will find the panneaux électoraux (election panels), where each candidate is assigned a numbered panel on which they are permitted to place their poster.

In the same way I discussed a local election I was involved in (here) I am going to examine each candidate in the French Presidential elections and comment on their campaign through the medium of their posters. In the spirit of fairness, I will follow the order of the latest polling for first-round voting intentions.

A common theme I have noticed, looking at them all, is the lack of party logos and even the lack of the candidate’s name.

1. Nicolas Sarkozy, UMP

The incumbent, often referred to as ‘the outgoing candidate’ by his main rival. Sarkozy looks much more serious than he did five years ago. This took about half an hour to be ruthlessly parodied (more on parodies here). A blue sky giving way to sunset, with Sarkozy looking out to sea might convey calm, until you discover that far from the cote d’azur, the picture was taken from the Aegean Sea.

Sarkozy announced his candidacy and came to the race late. This was most likely a ploy to generate media coverage, or rather take it away from others, and create a will-he-won’t-he narrative. That fits in with the style of the campaign, summed up in his constant refrains of ‘help me’ ‘being President is hard. That surprised nobody, as François Hollande said on the same evening as when Sarkozy declared his candidacy, ‘So we have now heard that the President-Candidate is now the Candidate-President!

Nevertheless, Sarkozy is a first-rate campaigner and will fight to the bitter end. La France Forte was also the slogan of another one-term president, Giscard d’Estaing (poster), who, in a cruel foreshadowing of history, lost to another Socialist called François.

2. François Hollande, Parti Socialiste

Everything about this image is designed to convey consistency and stability. The campaign walks a tightrope trying to be left enough to appeal to the base while appearing ‘safe’ enough to be entrusted with power. The blue suit, tie, and sky mimic Sarkozy’s typical style, while Hollande is one of the few candidates to look the voters in the eye, face on. The background of a rural, typical French village only adds to the down-to-earth ‘trust me’ theme. There is, at least, a bit of a smile, but nothing revolutionary.

Hollande has been in the race longer than anybody else. Almost a year ago, he announced he was running for the primaries to become the Socialist candidate before the election campaign. His nickname used to be ‘Flanby’ a French brand of flan, because he’s boring. However, if you have watched and listened to his speeches, I doubt you would consider him boring. He also has the bonus of being the only candidate I have met personally.

3. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Front de Gauche

JLM came from almost nowhere to become a real player in the campaign rising to third place and hence ‘best of the rest’, despite all the hysteria (that I warned against) about the rise of Marine Le Pen. Though his programme is not overly different to that of Hollande, he is free to be a great deal more revolutionary in his rhetoric, rising to 15% at Hollande’s expense, allowing Sarkozy to eek ahead in the first round. JLM has become the master of the big rallies, his indignant style of oratory hitting home with those most hurt by the crisis.

JLM looks off into the distance in front of a beautiful shade of red (matching the tie) that comes across as frankly Leninist. The text is a verb conjugation that is an order to the reader, while the candidate’s name is very small at the bottom.

4. Marine Le Pen, Front National

MLP’s campaign seems to have floundered somewhat (see here for background), despite the presence of classic themes like immigration and Europe which should be low-hanging fruit for the far right. Perhaps Sarkozy’s strategy of lurching to the right is working after all?

Again, no mention of either name or party. The obligatory flag is clear and the OUI tries to be positive, as does the general lighting, with Marine in a different pose to all the other candidates. Everything is done to distance herself from not only the other parties, but her own as well.

5. François Bayrou, Modem

Bayrou is nowhere near as important as he was in 2007 where he managed to pick up the ‘neither him or her’ vote, despite managing about 10%. A centrist, in the Lib Dem sense of the word (i.e. right leaning) from whom Sarkozy has tried to pinch a few votes too. Very little to say really. At least he’s smiling.

6. Eva Joly, EELV

The Greens debated whether to put up a candidate or not. Given that Joly is at 2%, it looks like they should have not, instead negotiating an agreement with Hollande. Poor Joly, who is a weak candidate anyway, recently fell down some stairs and was hospitalised. The poster, ‘The real change’ is a likely dig at Hollande’s change campaign.

The odd thing about this poster is that her glasses have been photoshopped green to match her party, whereas in reality they are always red.

7. The Rest under 1%

French media still runs under an old-fashioned rule about giving each candidate equal time for coverage, despite an obvious disparity between the above and the below. I don’t though, so here you have the remaining candidates who really needn’t have bothered:

Nathalie Arthaud

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

 

Phillipe Poutou

Jaques Cheminade, I couldn't find anything but his poster from 1995

So there you have the ten candidates for the 22 April, where the two who come out on top go through to a second round on May 6th.

It has to be said that I am a subscriber. In fact, I once applied for a job as a language professional in the capacity of Prononciation Researcher for the audio edition. I did not get the job, and I do think it was because of my experiences working for the French Socialist Party. Evidently not the Economist’s natural partners.

Usually, and to its credit, The Economist is a newspaper (some call it a magazine but it is registered as a newspaper) that is usually quite good about being straightforward in its bias. What I like about the newspaper is the fact that it is quite genuine about what it thinks is a good idea and what is a bad idea. It is also honest about its editorial line, rather than pretending that there isn’t one.

However, it is also prone to changing its mind and never admitting it was wrong. I’ve followed the paper thoroughly for 6 months and counting, and find it amusing that for weeks and weeks it talks about ‘Austerity is the way forward! More austerity!’ then suddenly, as growth plummets, it says ‘Well we always knew austerity would never work.’

French Coverage

What I enjoy most about The Economist’s coverage of the French Presidential elections is the stoic way in which it has tried to accuse François Hollande of being the bland and boring ‘Sauce Hollandaise’ (genuine article title) while also being a red menace who is hell bent on slaying the City.

The other side of the coin is its atypically subtle support for Nicolas Sarkozy. For weeks the paper has criticised him regularly with all the usual charges, until it published this article on the race.

This line particularly caught my attention:

This week, however, for the first time in five months a poll put Mr Sarkozy ahead in the first round, by 28.5% to 27.5%. The poll, by Ifop, may be rogue, but it has opened up the race.

This line was the basis for the entire article. One poll that was a bit out of sync with the rest. Other papers published the results as ‘neck and neck’. Forget about the margin of error. Forget about the poll that came out 6 hours later putting Hollande back on 30% and Sarkozy on 26%.

The rest of the piece is balanced. The Economist can rarely be considered propaganda. Perhaps I am just oversensitive, but I pick up on all these subliminal messages. Like:

Although Mr Sarkozy has come across as a warmer figure on the campaign trail, pressing the flesh in chocolate shops and local cafés, this had done little to lift his poll numbers.

A quote from the same piece. Who would have thought that just two issues ago, The Economist was saying that Hollande was too ‘normal’ and ‘jovial’ to be a serious President? And that Sarkozy was shielding himself from the people? Now Sarkozy is the People’s Candidate and Hollande is a cold blooded, red blooded, blood-thirsty Socialist. How we forget.

You can watch the original in French here or you can listen to the clip in English (my own interpretation) below:

I discovered this just after seeing this piece in the Wall Street Journal entitled ‘Nicolas Le Pen’. Just the latest in a series of bids for far right voters.

This will only intensify now that Le Pen is official on the ballot (explained here). As Verhofstadt would say, the campaign is developing in a very distasteful direction towards extreme right populism.

Over the summer, President Sarkozy and the French Government have deported about 1,000 Roma people to Romania and Bulgaria. The mass expulsion of a community (based on ethnicity), the likes of which we have not seen in Europe since the Second World War, was duly met with widespread condemnation.

The European Parliament passed a non-binding resolution that Sarkozy put a stop to his expulsion of the Roma, calling the measures “discriminatory and contrary to Community law” and pointing out that that collective expulsions violate European law because they discriminate based on race.” So the question of whether this was a good or bad, legal or illegal is essentially over.

However, in an article on LabourList (here) Claude Moreas MEP made only the most superficial analysis of the political situation in France, which was callous at best and wrong at worst; so what I hope to do in this article is explain in detail the political reasons why Sarkozy ordered the Roma expulsion.

Part One : A Classic Power Struggle

Unsurprisingly, the motive for the Roma Expulsions can be traced to the beginning of summer between a minister and his contemporary, both of whom have their power bases where I live in Nice.

Christian Estrosi, the Mayor of Nice, an MP and Minister for Industry has always been a close friend of Nicolas Sarkozy. Estrosi, locally, has a friend called Eric Ciotti, who used to be his parliamentary aide until he was installed as President of the General Council (the Department of the Alpes-Maritimes) as a sort of deputy figure, and also became an MP.

Ciotti became the darling of his right-wing UMP party, earning the creative nickname “Monsieur Sécurité” thanks to his plans to punish the parents of troublesome teens. Meanwhile, Estrosi was involved in an expenses scandal over his daughters Parisian apartment. Appearing several times consecutively in Le Canard Enchainé (that’s like Private Eye) means the press smells blood.

So the apprentice began to eclipse the master. With a big reshuffle on the way, Estrosi was terrified that he would be kicked out and, even worse, that he would be made the junior partner to Ciotti. Even worse than that would be if Ciotti were to become Interior Minister – the classic springboard to the Presidency.

Estrosi had to catch up. He had to show that he could out-do Ciotti on security. He launched an attack way outside his brief with a plan to punish “laxist” mayors who didn’t do enough to protect their towns. It was born out of the Grenoble incident and at the same time a jab at the Socialist Party leader, Martine Aubry, the mayor of Lille who has no security cameras in the streets. (Crime dropped by 0.9% in Aubry’s Lille compared to 0.5% in Estrosi’s Nice, by the way.)

Part Two: The Big Red Security button

In his LabourList piece, Moreas claimed that Sarkozy was

“Playing politics with peoples’ lives, he has reinforced his centre right constituency, attracting votes from people who may otherwise have been happier with Jean-Marie Le Pen’s ‘Front National’. As a strategy it’s working.”

What the Labour MEP forgot to add is that in March there will be elections for the departments (Cantonales for the Conseil Général). More importantly, these elections will be the last electoral test before the Presidentials in 2012.

However, Moreas was wrong to think that the “Steal Front National votes” strategy is working. Think back to last March and the Regional Elections, it was the FN that was able to steal UMP votes after a disastrous debate on National Identity. The Socialists won 21 out of 22 Regions.

So on the one hand we have the upcoming elections, and on the other we have the ministerial financial scandal “l’Affaire Woerth” that Sarkozy has been desperate to get off the front pages. He needed an opportunity to change to a higher gear.

Part Three : The Roma scapegoat

I wrote about the Grenoble incident nearer the time (a Roma was killed by a policeman which provoked other Roma to commit acts of vandalism), remarking that I thought it was strange that the President would get so involved in a relatively minor event.

I hope it’s clear now that I have put it in the wider context. This was the spark that lit the bonfire. Sarkozy had everything he needed to push the debate away from corruption and economics to security and immigration. Suddenly the Roma were perfect targets.

I return to the piece from Claude Moreas MEP:

“In fact, I recently led a delegation to meet Eric Besson, the French Europe Minister. [...] Sarkozy will not worry too much – he sees his actions as popular amongst centre and far right voters in France. As with the burka ban, he knows too that French Socialists may not go out on a limb to make this a national election issue.”

Two embarrassing and worrying errors here. Most concerning is the simple error that Eric Besson is not the French Europe Minister, he is in fact the Minister for Immigration, Integration and National Identity. This is important to understand not just because the Labour MEP didn’t know to whom he was talking, but moreover the title of “Immigration and National Identity” deliberately implies that the first is a menace to the second.

The other error is the claim that the Socialists won’t oppose the expulsions very seriously. It’s wrong because they (we?) have done, last Saturday in Nice alone around 5,000 people from the Socialists to the Greens to the Trade Unions to Human Rights organisations protested in the streets. Nice, I remind you, is one of the most pro-Sarkozy places in the country, and the home of dear Christian Estrosi.

Conclusion

For the elections, it is likely that the Roma will not be a central issue though, largely due to the fact that it has backfired spectacularly against Sarkozy. I think the Socialists will be more likely to use it as an example to paint the government as anti-republican. In any case, the Socialists would be wise not to rise to the bait but keep attacking on the Economy and Pension Reform.

The events this summer have brought shame on the French Republic, and Sarkozy has assaulted its key values of Liberty, Equality and Fraternity for his own cynical purposes. Certainly, the March elections will make an exciting run up to the 2012 Presidentials.

This political year in particular will be important. With the Presidential elections in mid 2012, Nicolas Sarkozy is coming to the end of his first mandate, and at present his second one is by no means a fait accompli.

So to set the agenda for the coming political year, here are the 10 main hurdles Sarkozy needs to overcome as we enter the last lap of his Presidency.

1. The Reshuffle

Nicolas Sarkozy’s intentions to replace his Prime Minister have been announced several times, though Francois Fillon still remains in Matignon.

Fillon has proven more difficult to get rid of than Sarkozy and his friends would like. The Prime Minister’s personal approval ratings have shown that he’s one of the most popular right-wing figures in France and notably more so than the President. As a figure of responsibility, stability and sensibility within the UMP party, he has often had to play the fireman after Sarkozy’s incendiary comments.

Nevertheless, the reshuffle will be the last chance Sarkozy has to appoint another Prime Minister and organise the team that will take him into the elections.

2. L’affaire Woerth that won’t go away

Like the MPs’ expenses scandal, L’affaire Woerth was a scandal that could not have come at a worse time. Just in time for the summer, it was the perfect gift to any journalist who needed to fill a front page or an editorial. Also like MPs’ Expenses, it was more of a political scandal than a judicial one as the rules were not technically broken but certainly had their structural integrity tested.

As a relatively complex financial scandal, details and speculation kept the story going. What is particularly damaging for Sarkozy is that because of its complexity, few will understand but all will disapprove. Segolene Royal called the government corrupt on prime-time news, which was then backed up by a particularly worrying poll for the President.

3. A poor economic recovery

Unemployment has always been a problem in France (several theories why) and now it’s higher than ever at around 9.5%. This contributes to a massive deficit of 8%, which means that the government won’t be able to offer any pre-election giveaways.

A piecemeal return to growth, which is unlikely to exceed 1.4% in 2010 (compare it to the 3% expected from Germany), won’t help either of these two problems.

4. A Socialist Revival

After an extraordinary showing in March 2009 in the Regional Elections and a surprising show of unity during their party conference in La Rochelle, the media narrative of the Socialist Party has turned from a Party in terminal decline to a Party revived and ready to win the presidency for the second time in history… as long as they can find a suitable candidate.

5. Pension Reform

Sarkozy’s plans to raise the legal retirement age from 65 to 67 have put him on the wrong side of the populist argument. On September the 7th, he was faced with a nationwide strike.

I can’t explain in words how serious the situation in France is at the moment, but let me try and illustrate how important the issue is. Nice, a very rich and right-wing city in the most pro-Sarkozy department in the country, saw between 20,000 and 30,000 people take to the streets. Multiply that from Lille to Toulouse, and you might get the picture.

6. Disquiet in the ranks

If Fillon caused Sarkozy some trouble by trying to put out the fire, the rest of the UMP grandees have been lighting some more matches. Three of Chirac’s Prime Ministers, Juppé, de Villepin and Raffarin have all been ready to criticise various aspects of governmental policy. It looks like the centrists in the party will not be writing Sarkozy a blank cheque any longer.

7. The Roma and the Republic

This deserves a longer post, but Sarkozy has assaulted Marianne (the female personification of the French Republic) in his forcible deportation of the Roma. Even the Pope, the most reactionary man on the planet, has condemned the policy. Even the European Parliament, with its right-wing majority, condemned the policy in a single afternoon.

Let’s hope Sarkozy had a nice holiday, because he’s got his work cut out for him this year.