Over the summer, President Sarkozy and the French Government have deported about 1,000 Roma people to Romania and Bulgaria. The mass expulsion of a community (based on ethnicity), the likes of which we have not seen in Europe since the Second World War, was duly met with widespread condemnation.

The European Parliament passed a non-binding resolution that Sarkozy put a stop to his expulsion of the Roma, calling the measures “discriminatory and contrary to Community law” and pointing out that that collective expulsions violate European law because they discriminate based on race.” So the question of whether this was a good or bad, legal or illegal is essentially over.

However, in an article on LabourList (here) Claude Moreas MEP made only the most superficial analysis of the political situation in France, which was callous at best and wrong at worst; so what I hope to do in this article is explain in detail the political reasons why Sarkozy ordered the Roma expulsion.

Part One : A Classic Power Struggle

Unsurprisingly, the motive for the Roma Expulsions can be traced to the beginning of summer between a minister and his contemporary, both of whom have their power bases where I live in Nice.

Christian Estrosi, the Mayor of Nice, an MP and Minister for Industry has always been a close friend of Nicolas Sarkozy. Estrosi, locally, has a friend called Eric Ciotti, who used to be his parliamentary aide until he was installed as President of the General Council (the Department of the Alpes-Maritimes) as a sort of deputy figure, and also became an MP.

Ciotti became the darling of his right-wing UMP party, earning the creative nickname “Monsieur Sécurité” thanks to his plans to punish the parents of troublesome teens. Meanwhile, Estrosi was involved in an expenses scandal over his daughters Parisian apartment. Appearing several times consecutively in Le Canard Enchainé (that’s like Private Eye) means the press smells blood.

So the apprentice began to eclipse the master. With a big reshuffle on the way, Estrosi was terrified that he would be kicked out and, even worse, that he would be made the junior partner to Ciotti. Even worse than that would be if Ciotti were to become Interior Minister – the classic springboard to the Presidency.

Estrosi had to catch up. He had to show that he could out-do Ciotti on security. He launched an attack way outside his brief with a plan to punish “laxist” mayors who didn’t do enough to protect their towns. It was born out of the Grenoble incident and at the same time a jab at the Socialist Party leader, Martine Aubry, the mayor of Lille who has no security cameras in the streets. (Crime dropped by 0.9% in Aubry’s Lille compared to 0.5% in Estrosi’s Nice, by the way.)

Part Two: The Big Red Security button

In his LabourList piece, Moreas claimed that Sarkozy was

“Playing politics with peoples’ lives, he has reinforced his centre right constituency, attracting votes from people who may otherwise have been happier with Jean-Marie Le Pen’s ‘Front National’. As a strategy it’s working.”

What the Labour MEP forgot to add is that in March there will be elections for the departments (Cantonales for the Conseil Général). More importantly, these elections will be the last electoral test before the Presidentials in 2012.

However, Moreas was wrong to think that the “Steal Front National votes” strategy is working. Think back to last March and the Regional Elections, it was the FN that was able to steal UMP votes after a disastrous debate on National Identity. The Socialists won 21 out of 22 Regions.

So on the one hand we have the upcoming elections, and on the other we have the ministerial financial scandal “l’Affaire Woerth” that Sarkozy has been desperate to get off the front pages. He needed an opportunity to change to a higher gear.

Part Three : The Roma scapegoat

I wrote about the Grenoble incident nearer the time (a Roma was killed by a policeman which provoked other Roma to commit acts of vandalism), remarking that I thought it was strange that the President would get so involved in a relatively minor event.

I hope it’s clear now that I have put it in the wider context. This was the spark that lit the bonfire. Sarkozy had everything he needed to push the debate away from corruption and economics to security and immigration. Suddenly the Roma were perfect targets.

I return to the piece from Claude Moreas MEP:

“In fact, I recently led a delegation to meet Eric Besson, the French Europe Minister. [...] Sarkozy will not worry too much – he sees his actions as popular amongst centre and far right voters in France. As with the burka ban, he knows too that French Socialists may not go out on a limb to make this a national election issue.”

Two embarrassing and worrying errors here. Most concerning is the simple error that Eric Besson is not the French Europe Minister, he is in fact the Minister for Immigration, Integration and National Identity. This is important to understand not just because the Labour MEP didn’t know to whom he was talking, but moreover the title of “Immigration and National Identity” deliberately implies that the first is a menace to the second.

The other error is the claim that the Socialists won’t oppose the expulsions very seriously. It’s wrong because they (we?) have done, last Saturday in Nice alone around 5,000 people from the Socialists to the Greens to the Trade Unions to Human Rights organisations protested in the streets. Nice, I remind you, is one of the most pro-Sarkozy places in the country, and the home of dear Christian Estrosi.

Conclusion

For the elections, it is likely that the Roma will not be a central issue though, largely due to the fact that it has backfired spectacularly against Sarkozy. I think the Socialists will be more likely to use it as an example to paint the government as anti-republican. In any case, the Socialists would be wise not to rise to the bait but keep attacking on the Economy and Pension Reform.

The events this summer have brought shame on the French Republic, and Sarkozy has assaulted its key values of Liberty, Equality and Fraternity for his own cynical purposes. Certainly, the March elections will make an exciting run up to the 2012 Presidentials.

The Mayor of Nice decided without warning that the recordings would be cut, claiming that it was necessary to make economies.

He said that the practice costs the local government 25,000 euros per year. He runs the Conseil Municipal (the town of Nice) which serves about 450,000 citizens.

Here’s a video for francophones:

Compare this to the Conseil Régional, that serves the entire region of Provence, the Alpes and the Cote d’Azur (including  Nice), that’s about 4,781,000 people, with a much bigger number of councillors and hence a bigger room and presumably more cameras. To broadcast a meeting, it costs the region 2,000 euros.

The Region meets 5 times a year, so broadcasting costs 10,000 euros per year. Estrosi holds 4 meetings per year, the legal minimum. To reach his figure, over double the cost despite fewer meetings, his cameras must be made out of gold. Note that 4 times a year is the legal minimum for the Conseil Municipal to meet.

Also note that the propaganda “magazine” that gets distributed to everybody’s letterbox, as well as “letters from the mayor” costs the town 450,000 a year.

Having dispelled the money myth, the real reason he was to censor the broadcast is because it is the only source of unbiased, unfiltered news left. The Mayor’s office buys “advertising space” in the local paper, to the extent it provides a third of the newspaper’s total revenue.

Estrosi is simply trying to hide the truth, and by preventing the  recording of the council meetings he does a disservice to democracy and his electors.

I was going into a bar with two friends of mine (both of them French) who are a bit older than myself. In the event that they read this and understand it, I’m going to say they are about 34.

As we walk into the bar (decisively not a club but still quite noisy), at around 2130 I add, I was suddenly stopped by the man on the door.

He asked me how old I was.

Now I’m 21 which is a significant way past the age of majority, but I accept I don’t always look it (particularly having shaven just a few hours previously), but I’m no longer used to the question. Especially because of the way I usually dress and behave; on the contrary, I am more often confused to being the manager of Marks & Spencer, Tesco, or Bristol Temple Meads railway station.

Surprised, I told the man I was 21. He asked for identity, which I didn’t have because a) I didn’t have my wallet with me and b) because I’m English and we don’t have identity cards.

After I said I don’t have ID with me, he asked (this is all in French, mind you)

What’s your date of birth?

The 10th of March, 89.

Again surprised at the question, I responded with the truth as I had no reason to lie. If you’re under-age and you have to lie, you say you’re 18 or 19, you don’t go the distance to 21.

Then came the most aggressive question:

Why did you have to think about it?

My reply:

Why did I have to think about it? Because I’m not used to people asking and French is not my maternal language!

I am thus more taken aback not by the fact that he thought I was a minor (it was dark and he has to be careful) but by the fact he thought I was French and didn’t believe me the first few times when I said I was English. This particular bar is well known in Nice (Chez Wayne) and particularly popular with ex-pats.

Normally this is the part where I would try to draw a conclusion on society or culture, but I think this guy was just an idiot. So here’s a punchline instead: having negotiated entry, we left immediately because it was too full, and went somewhere much better.

Parti Socialiste: 29.5%
UMP: 27%
Europe Ecologie: 12.5%
Front National: 11.7%
Front de Gauche: 6.2%
Modem: 4%
Extreme Gauche: 3.7%

Participation: VERY LOW around 46.5%

Conclusions:

• This is the worst score the UMP has ever had. Sarkozy was nowhere to be seen the entire night, and typically the Prime Minister, Francois Fillon was left holding the bag.
• Segolene Royal won 39% of the vote, evidently that’s amazing strong.
• The Greens have been able to secure their place as the third force in French Politics though they are a long way behind the Socialists, the orange MoDem people have been confined to the dustbin.

Now for the results in my regon of Provence Alpes Cote D’azur, which make for interesting reading:

Parti Socialiste: 26%
UMP: 26%
Front National: 20%
Europe Ecologie: 11%
Front de Gauche: 6.5%

So the PS and the UMP are neck and neck, which is amazing for the Left in an area like this. The Greens are able to go to the second round but I think it will be more likely that they fuse lists with the Socialists, likewise the FDG.

The FN have struck big here. One the one side you have Toulon, the most fascist town in the country, and then on top of it you have Jean-Marie Le Pen, a brand by himself. I think he enjoyed an emotional vote as it is the last time he’ll be a candidate.

It just goes to show there is still a lot to play for; but overall it was an excellent night for the Parti Socialiste.

The curfew forbids children from going out on the streets without an adult after 11pm on Wednesdays, Fridays and Saturdays.
In principle, there is no reason for a minor to be out on the streets alone at night. However, this curfew is nothing but an ineffective and impractical publicity stunt.

Estrosi: “I said go to your room.”

Estrosi is showing a deeply authoritarian side to his personality, as was shown when he decided to ban street performers that had not passed his quality exam. (See my piece on that.)

In addition, this stunt has been designed to help Estrosi and his right-wing UMP party to make a few headlines on security issues just a few months before the regional elections. (More on them here and here).

The curfew is also impossible to administer and totally irresponsible. There are at most a little more than a dozen police patrols at night for 360,000 inhabitants. Children on the streets is not only a tiny problem, the police have much more frequent and serious crime incidents to deal with. The fact that Estrosi himself has closed 17 préfectures (police stations) makes matters worse.

In a typical fashion, Estrosi will be using the right hand to punish “offenders” by cutting and removing benefits instead of investigating why parents are letting their children out at night.

This is another trademark Estrosi policy; mad, worrying, dangerous and completely impossible. It’s Sarkozyism applied on a local level.

The debate about electoral reform in Britain has always been “PR or not to PR”, with the third way of AV or AV+ and other complicated overhauls creeping in to the lexicon. The conclusion is always a very British paradox; FTPT is unfair, unrepresentative and needs reforming…but that’s the way we like it.

As a reaction, rather than a solution, to the expenses scandal when it broke a few months ago, there was a whole package of changes designed to restore a democracy in crisis. Fixed Term Parliaments were suggested and then forgotten about; meanwhile the Tories are determined to self-harm by reducing the number of MPs in the Commons as part of their ghoulish quest for cuts.

I have been looking at various democratic innovations we could import from other European countries, particularly France.

Both nations are suffering from a declining turnout, but for opposite reasons. The French tend to experience election fatigue, as they are required to vote for their MEP, the Président, their MP, then Regional, General and Municipal councillors, as well as their Mayor (no matter how small the town).

Britain, conversely, experiences election atrophy, creating the attitude “We only see you at election time” every four years, and there are generally only three levels of representation; the MEPs, MPs and Local Councillors, then depending on where you live there may be Scottish, Welsh or Northern Irish Assembly members or the Mayor of London and the GLA.

Creating more levels of representation will not have any effect if it is impossible to justify introducing them. Regional Assemblies, for example, were piloted then abandoned, though there is still a vocal lobby for an English Parliament.

Instead, the main argument used against British First Past the Post is the fact we have ‘two horse races’ in a three party system, which leads to either tactical voting or ‘wasted’ votes.

To solve this, we could experiment with a two-round system. It’s quite simple to implement ‘two elections’; the French vote on a Sunday (weekend voting is something else we should consider) and the two candidates with the highest share of the vote go through to a second round the following week. Sometimes three candidates qualify, but it’s all in the detail.

The effect on Britain could be a great many more parties form, as well as more independent candidates standing (coalitions are very popular here) but voting for one of the weaker candidates wouldn’t necessarily exclude you from having a say in the final decision between the more successful candidates. In the local by-election we fought over the summer in Nice there were eleven different candidates, though predictably the PS and UMP (Labour and Conservative equivalents, broadly speaking) qualified. This also means that ‘the underdog’ can stage quite a miraculous recovery thanks to the ‘reserve votes’.

It could transform tactical voting and make safe seats less safe, but the downside is of course that it would make two-party constituencies even clearer. Currently, many constituencies are Labour/Conservative marginals with the Lib Dems trailing in third place, so Lib Dems have to choose whether to vote for their own party and ‘waste’ their vote or to vote for whichever party they see as the lesser of two evils. Under a two-round system, they would be free to show support for their party in the first instance but on the second round they could make a straight choice for whomever they prefer. Labour voters are in a similar situation in the south.

When the ‘left’ vote is split (this mainly depends on how you view the Lib Dems) the Tories get in. But voting twice will allow voters to keep to their principles and be realistic at the same time. This vote-splitting is prohibited and so safe seats become a lot less safe. It may even increase turnout because, in the second round at least, every vote will make a difference.

The time between first and second rounds could also be used effectively to sharpen and clarify dividing lines while having the advantage of making political events more practical. For the Leader’s debates, there is still the question of what to do with Nick Clegg. It seems silly to have him on between the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition, but unfair not to invite him as he is after all a party leader.

Similarly, during the London Mayoral election campaign in May 2008, Newsnight had to invite Brian Paddick along, despite the fact the campaign was so evidently a Johnson/Livingstone affair. Second preference votes are obviously weaker than First preference, but if even the most dedicated Lib Dem voters were posed a straight choice between Ken and Boris, Ken might have made it (or Boris may have had a bigger majority).

A key argument against PR and AV is that they are more confusing and complex than one vote, one winner elections. So when it comes to Electoral Reform, all I propose is that Britain looks beyond the same debate we have had for decades and starts to think about real changes we can make. To that end, it may be worth looking to Europe for ideas.

In fact, right-wing UMP Mayor Christian Estrosi has made Nice the champion of all of France… for local tax increases!

See the map for runners up:

The tax rises he has decided on this year will mean that a family in Nice will have to pay an extra 200 euros on average.

For certain property owners, the increase of 17% of the taxe d’habitation (living in a building) and 16.5% in the taxe foncière (owning a building) could be up to 900.

However, this money won’t be going towards neighbourhood improvement, or education, or social help for the elderly, or to create jobs. It will instead serve the financial requirements of the Mayor’s whims and pet projects. The failed candidacy to host the Olympic Games, the Balcons du Mercantour (the creation of a hiking route costing 20 millions euros) and cable cars to the Observatory…

Remember, it’s not just the Left who want to tax and spend, the Right are equally audacious. The difference is what they want to spend it on!

(French Speakers may wish to watch the report from France 2:)

Most of my office time is spent in a branch of the Conseil Regional in Nice, a section mainly for civil servants, and apart from the incredibly pleasant atmosphere and kind people, it’s also a good place to be because the Socialists are in power.

However, the Regional Elections are taking place in March.

The Parti Socialiste took power from the Right in 1998 and has held it ever since, though in the present political climate coming from Paris, 2010 could be a difficult one.

Sarkozy is making it his business to reclaim a lot of regions lost to the Left in 2004, but PACA is on the top of his list along with Ile-de-France (No inside information from me on that one).

The pressure therefore rests on the Mayor of Toulon (and minister for veterans), Hubert Falco who is preparing himself to head the UMP list, though he has yet to officially declare it. PACA is fairly naturally right-wing, with Sarkozy himself winning 62% in 2007.

So on paper the region looks like it could fall to the Right in 2010, just as it looked in 1998. Normally, it would be a straight duel between the PS and the UMP, were it not for the far-right Front National.

Avoiding a Three-Way

The UMP’s biggest fear is that the Front gets more than 10% and thus qualifies to the second round, creating a PS vs. UMP vs. FN triangle. In 2004, the results were 45.18% vs. 33.82% vs. 21.00% respectively.

Clearly the FN is successful at sapping the support of the UMP, allowing the Left to jump ahead. It seems odd that the far-right would allow such a thing to happen. The explanation mainly comes from the FN leader Jean-Marie Le Pen, for whom PACA is his old stomping ground as an MEP for the South East, and so it comes from pride more than ambition.

Note here the stark lack of principle in Sarkozy compared to Chirac. Chirac would never do any deals with the FN and fired anyone who did (Not a No Platform, just a No Bargaining policy). Sarko, on the other hand, is determined to grab as much as he can, and the UMP have been in discussion with Philippe de Villiers and his far-right but not quite the Front team (MPF party, for you experts).

Hubert Falco, UMP, keeps his cards close to his chest

The regional level of the UMP is under a strict keep-quiet policy under Sarkozy’s orders. The line from HQ is nothing else than “We’re getting on with the task at hand.” Dealing with the recession and all that kind of thing; there’s an economic crisis going on, people aren’t bothered with silly things like elections that happen every six years.

Falco, set to be the local boss, will of course have to leave his city of Toulon, and the department, to which he claimed he was dearly attached. Much like how Estrosi said his only loyalty was to Nice before he became Minister for Industry.

Michel Vauzelle, Parti Socialiste, wants to keep the Left united

This gent is going for a third mandate as Monsieur Le Président de la Région PACA which is coincidentally how many times I have spoken to him. (We get on well.)

His plan is a coalition of the Left (if it worked before…) however, this typically does not include Communists who have their own group. This time, it probably won’t include the Greens, as they’ve gained a bit of confidence since the EU elections and want to go it alone. (Morons) Vauzelle’s response was “What do they think they’re playing at?” He’s a very good bloke.

Jean-Marie Le Pen, Front National, wants to exact his revenge

As he’s past 80, these will be without doubt Le Pen’s last elections (Mark my words!), but he sees them as going to be triumphant. He didn’t run in 2004 because he was ineligible and left someone else at the top of the FN list, but with the big boss in town, the party might do surprisingly well. Last time when his part got about 20% he said the results were less than they were hoping for.

Le Pen’s strategy will be to go after those right-wingers taken in but then disappointed by Sarkozy, in addition to winning about 10% in the three “heaviest” departments. If they get past 10% in the regional, I won’t be the only one not surprised.

I had to deal with it in an Excel spreadsheet and figure out who was who, but YOU get this nice handy chart:

So, there are a number of interesting conclusions I draw from this. (Note the French use a comma instead of a decimal point. Even punctuation translates.)

1. Unsurprisingly, the UMP candidate is way ahead with 40.54% compared to us in second place with 15.38%. This means that we go to the second round on Sunday, but it doesn’t look likely that we will win.

2. The Greens failed miserably. There score is way below what they should have expected considering their performance at the EU Parliament Elections. They have also (once again) refused to enter an alliance with us. In fact, in an interview a Green (not important who) said “The principles of the PS are not compatible with Europe Ecologie” – A barely veiled call to vote Right, I think.

3. The “Left” put together about 35%. I don’t know about “Modem” (Lib Dems!) but I think the Communists are willing to help.

4. Participation was 20%. Not surprising for a by-election taking place during the summer and just after the return to school, yet still despicable.

5. The Extreme Right is the really interesting one, in which I eat my own words. I had said not to worry too much about the FN because they had collapsed in 2007. You can’t argue that 8% isn’t a good performance, add it to his other fascist-friend (Nissa Identitaire) and you have a total of 16%. It seems they’re getting their act together once again.

Nevertheless, nothing is lost. Into the breach, camarades!

If you have any questions, I’ll answer them in the comments.

The Heavyweights

The local press has framed the election mainly as a “duel between left and right” with the two main parties in France likely to go through.

Xavier Garica: Parti Socialiste

My team! Xavier Garcia is the press spokesman for the Parti Socialiste and grew up in the constituency. He seems to be the only candidate with a consistent slogan “Pour mieux vivre dans notre quartier” (To improve life in our neighbourhood”) and a very good poster designer (not me). His website is also first rate.

We put out a questionnaire at the beginning of the campaign and had over 500 responses. Guess whose task it was to put the answers in a spreadsheet? Yo. At least now I know this section of town better than most residents of Nice.

His only potential weaknesses are the image of the PS at a national level (a mess) and the fact that he has never run for anything before. However, this could of course work in his favour compared to our adversary.

Lauriano Azinheirinha: Union pour un Mouvement Populaire

The “favourite” in that the UMP won the election first time round but were disqualified (The PS did not field a candidate; see the Greens). They have glossy leaflets and incumbency on their side.

However, the candidate is not particularly well known despite already being a Deputy Mayor. He is relying on the charisma and name recognition of Christian Estrosi. As you can see in the picture “Estrosi avec Lauriano!” and on all his literature the name Estrosi has been in bold. Dirty Tricks abundant, Estrosi even wrote a letter to the residents of the canton telling them who to vote for. TSK.

The problem with riding on Estrosi’s coattails is that they are plenty of anti-Estrosi people out there!

The Lightweights

Though there are other minor characters we’ve seen out and about:

Vincent Péchenot: Les Verts (Greens)

When the elections were officially taking place, the PS decided not to field their own candidate but make an agreement with the Greens, as they work together in the group Changer D’ère in the Mayoralty.

From what I gather, this gent is not really a viable candidate to go against the UMP war machine so the PS decided to take it upon themselves.

I’ve seen them out leafletting fairly frequently, though it was off to a slow start. One particular occasion they were riding around Pasteur on bicycles with green flags. That might work in Cimiez (lots of richy-ecologist types) but not so much in Pasteur. D’oh!

Then we have this not very interesting assortment of right-wingers, most of whom pitch them selves as “UMP without the UMP part” or just plain “No to Estrosi”. (Spot the Lib Dem)

The Loonies

And you can’t have 11 candidates without finding a few comedy gems and plain old nightmares!

Communists

Though the Parti Communiste is typically considered mainstream, I just haven’t quite got used tot eh idea that Communists still exist. The PCF campaign hasn’t been great at all, and their literature has been AWFUL. It’s a nice poster though, if a little cluttered by logos.

We haven’t seen much of this guy apart from posters, but he’s definitely my favourite after Xavier (for a different reason); I don’t know why, but everytime I pass his poster I die from laughing, perhaps you can figure it out:

Hahaha. It’s just brilliant. First, contrast it with the others and you notice a certain rough-and-ready quality.

Second, compare it with the official Communist Party candidate: The Black-and-White photo, OLD-SCHOOL! For all those who feel that the Communist Party is just too damn right wing these days! We need a PROPER communist around here.

I think it’s the Hammer and Sickle that gets me.

The Fascists

So we have the extreme Left, now take a look at the extreme Right:

Jean-Louis Faudi: Front National

The bigger brother of the BNP, the FN has been the subject of many questions posed to me.

First, it has to be said that the FN has not got a huge presence in Nice any more. It just to be very strong, but due to local internal fighting the organisation all but collapsed. You tend to find pockets of FN activity, but I haven’t seen any obvious activism as I think they only come out at night. I have seen areas with “Le Pen: President” stickers on lamp posts, and they have covered a fair bit of ground in terms of paper, but nothing slick.

Click on the poster above though, and you’ll notice a few things: One, he just looks plain evil, what with the squinting. Two, some have asked about  whether, like the BNP they have tried to “reinvent themselves.” I’ll point you to the black shirt. I’ll also point you to the mini picture of the Muslim women. The slogan reads “meme emballée, l’immigration n’est pas un cadeau” which means “Even wrapped up, Immigration is not a gift.”

Benoit Loeuillet: Nissa Rebelda

But for those of you out there who think the FN is for softy pinkos, there exists an even further right candidate for you!

This is, to my knowledge, the NiceIndependence  movement. You can see that some enterprising individual decided reveal his little Hiter ‘stache. The funny thing is he gave the kiss of death to Xavier in an interview where he said (roughly):

The only good surprise about this campaign has been that Garcia. At last! A lefty who is not afraid to talk about security. 2nd round, we vote for him.

Round 2

At the moment, I (like everyone else) am assuming that it is the UMP and the PS who will qualify, though the results will be announced officially tonight. Then it’s a straight head to head until the winner is decided next Sunday.

If all goes well, the Greens and Communists will come rallying to us. Conversely, it’s unlikely that the UMP guy, on such an overly pro-Estrosi platform, is going to win the support of the Far-Right or even the Centre-Right minor parties.