Posts Tagged "Elections"
Socialists set to win major victory
Tomorrow I return to France to help the Parti Socialiste in the Regional Elections on Sundays the 14th and the 22nd. I’ve written previously about the corner I’ll be fighting in Provence-Alpes-Cote d’Azur here and here, and more recently about the polls predicting a socialist victory here.
The lead is not restricted to PACA though, as the PS is widely expected to guard its monopoly over regional government, perhaps even taking control Alsace and Corsica as well.
Below is a map that shows the results from the previous elections in 2004, and in 1998:
Polls generally put the Socialists around two or three points ahead for the first round, and once the Greens, MoDem, and Front National parties get knocked out on Sunday, we’ll see a straightforward duel between the Parti Socialiste and the UMP.
I was generally expecting an unpleasant prognosis for the PS, as the (predicted) success is probably more despite the leadership of the party than because of it, which confirms my general perception of French Politics: decentralised campaigns for a centralised state. The PS in particular is very weak and ineffective at a national level (see the problems between Segolene Royal and Martine Aubry), yet incredibly effective at a regional and local level, there still remains many nigh-unconquerable socialist bastions.
So the PS is likely to win in spite of itself, with the real emphasis of the vote going to punish Sarkozy midway through his presidential term. His right-wing Union pour un Movement Populaire has also suffered from the disastrously explosive debate on National Identity, hijacked by far-right.
What we have seen is a huge change in media narrative. Following its paltry score of 16% in the EU Parliament elections in June, the press declared that the Parti Socialiste was now a party in terminal decline, predicting that the Greens (Les Verts) would become the new party of opposition. Instead, the storyline has reversed, and now points to a resurgence after a long period of self-reflection.
Socialists on course to win regional elections
As I sort my life out in Spain and get back into regular blogging, I’m pleased to offer this bit of continuity.
On the 14th and 21st of March, elections for the Conseils Regionals all over France will take place.
These will be a decisive test for French politics because, as it stands, the Parti Socialiste has everything to play for. Currently, the Socialists hold an impressive 20 out of 22 regions, with Corsica and Alsace being the ones out of reach. Although Sarkozy’s right-wing UMP is looking to grab as many as it can, notably PACA, signs of success don’t look promising.
It is a peculiarity I noted during my stay, that the French Parti Socialiste is incredibly strong at a Regional (obviously) and local level. Nationally, they just can’t seem to get their act together, though I have noticed a clever and subtle branding change recently. Anyway, these elections could be the victory the PS seriously needs to turn the Press Narrative in its favour, in my analysis, the PS still has not quite reconciled itself over defeat in round one in the Presidential elections of 2002, having been beaten by Jean Marie Le Pen (Front National).
Speaking of JM Le P, this brings us neatly (it’s as if I plan and organise these articles, isn’t it?) to the elections in Provence-Alps-Cote d’Azur, a key area I worked in between June and two weeks ago.
Observe the video:
For non-francophonists, the video outlines the opinion polls in PACA. The first slide shows voting intention for the first round, depending on the results, two or three parties will go through (there are certain details, but lets call it that if the FN, as the 3rd party, get more than 10%, they go through). 30 seconds in, you see the voting intention in case of a “triangulaire”, three-way fight. At 49%, it’s good news for the socialists, despite the Greens running their own list (disruptive, non?). At 45 seconds, it shows the voting intention in case of a left-right duel, in which it’s a closer race 53:47 with the Socialists ahead. The rest of the video shows the current Président de la Région Michel Vauzelle (friend of the blog!) saying the usual “this is a good result but we mustn’t be complacent.”
I’ll be going back to France to help out the PS in PACA between the first and second rounds. In you want to learn more, click here and here to see previous relevant posts.
We can look to Europe for ideas to reform our democracy
I have been working for our French colleagues in the Parti Socialiste for 6 months now, and though I don’t know what a Jedward is, I have been able to experience ‘continental democracy’.
The debate about electoral reform in Britain has always been “PR or not to PR”, with the third way of AV or AV+ and other complicated overhauls creeping in to the lexicon. The conclusion is always a very British paradox; FTPT is unfair, unrepresentative and needs reforming…but that’s the way we like it.
As a reaction, rather than a solution, to the expenses scandal when it broke a few months ago, there was a whole package of changes designed to restore a democracy in crisis. Fixed Term Parliaments were suggested and then forgotten about; meanwhile the Tories are determined to self-harm by reducing the number of MPs in the Commons as part of their ghoulish quest for cuts.
I have been looking at various democratic innovations we could import from other European countries, particularly France.
Both nations are suffering from a declining turnout, but for opposite reasons. The French tend to experience election fatigue, as they are required to vote for their MEP, the Président, their MP, then Regional, General and Municipal councillors, as well as their Mayor (no matter how small the town).
Britain, conversely, experiences election atrophy, creating the attitude “We only see you at election time” every four years, and there are generally only three levels of representation; the MEPs, MPs and Local Councillors, then depending on where you live there may be Scottish, Welsh or Northern Irish Assembly members or the Mayor of London and the GLA.
Creating more levels of representation will not have any effect if it is impossible to justify introducing them. Regional Assemblies, for example, were piloted then abandoned, though there is still a vocal lobby for an English Parliament.
Instead, the main argument used against British First Past the Post is the fact we have ‘two horse races’ in a three party system, which leads to either tactical voting or ‘wasted’ votes.
To solve this, we could experiment with a two-round system. It’s quite simple to implement ‘two elections’; the French vote on a Sunday (weekend voting is something else we should consider) and the two candidates with the highest share of the vote go through to a second round the following week. Sometimes three candidates qualify, but it’s all in the detail.
The effect on Britain could be a great many more parties form, as well as more independent candidates standing (coalitions are very popular here) but voting for one of the weaker candidates wouldn’t necessarily exclude you from having a say in the final decision between the more successful candidates. In the local by-election we fought over the summer in Nice there were eleven different candidates, though predictably the PS and UMP (Labour and Conservative equivalents, broadly speaking) qualified. This also means that ‘the underdog’ can stage quite a miraculous recovery thanks to the ‘reserve votes’.
It could transform tactical voting and make safe seats less safe, but the downside is of course that it would make two-party constituencies even clearer. Currently, many constituencies are Labour/Conservative marginals with the Lib Dems trailing in third place, so Lib Dems have to choose whether to vote for their own party and ‘waste’ their vote or to vote for whichever party they see as the lesser of two evils. Under a two-round system, they would be free to show support for their party in the first instance but on the second round they could make a straight choice for whomever they prefer. Labour voters are in a similar situation in the south.
When the ‘left’ vote is split (this mainly depends on how you view the Lib Dems) the Tories get in. But voting twice will allow voters to keep to their principles and be realistic at the same time. This vote-splitting is prohibited and so safe seats become a lot less safe. It may even increase turnout because, in the second round at least, every vote will make a difference.
The time between first and second rounds could also be used effectively to sharpen and clarify dividing lines while having the advantage of making political events more practical. For the Leader’s debates, there is still the question of what to do with Nick Clegg. It seems silly to have him on between the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition, but unfair not to invite him as he is after all a party leader.
Similarly, during the London Mayoral election campaign in May 2008, Newsnight had to invite Brian Paddick along, despite the fact the campaign was so evidently a Johnson/Livingstone affair. Second preference votes are obviously weaker than First preference, but if even the most dedicated Lib Dem voters were posed a straight choice between Ken and Boris, Ken might have made it (or Boris may have had a bigger majority).
A key argument against PR and AV is that they are more confusing and complex than one vote, one winner elections. So when it comes to Electoral Reform, all I propose is that Britain looks beyond the same debate we have had for decades and starts to think about real changes we can make. To that end, it may be worth looking to Europe for ideas.
Sarkozy disobeyed by his party in PACA
Since I wrote my last article (here) explaining the situation surrounding the elections of the Conseil Régional PACA (Provence-Alpes-Cote D’Azur) we have had an important development!
Hubert Falco, who was widely tipped as the man to wrangle PACA from the Socialists, has officially refused orders to lead the UMP list.
The papers (including myself) were all too quick to draw the battle lines. However Falco’s refusal means that the UMP (particularly Sarkozy) is in substantial disarray, with no local candidate known well enough to take an important and symbolic prize.
Sarkozy has very little choice, given that he can no longer force Falco into it. After a public “no”, a public “well all right then” would not play very well in such a close contest.
The only real alternative could be Sarkozy’s minime, Christian Estrosi. Yet the Mayor of Nice also has far too many other jobs (including a ministerial post), and it’s a very risky proposition. By moving Estrosi to PACA, it creates a power vacuum in Nice, leaving the door open to anti-Sarkozyites in a key city.
Estrosi is thus unlikely to accept, which means Sarko is probably going to have to send someone down from Paris. French elections are highly localised, so without Falco the goalposts for the Socialists have just become that bit wider.
The Battle for PACA: the Left, the Right and Le Pen
PACA is one of the 23 regions of France, it stands for Provence-Alpes-Cote D’Azur. The capital is Marseilles, which holds the regional assembly where most of the elected Regional Councillors work. I visited there once when they had some sort of big session going on ; it’s rather like any other hemicycle based parliament, and it was also there that I ate my first snail.
Most of my office time is spent in a branch of the Conseil Regional in Nice, a section mainly for civil servants, and apart from the incredibly pleasant atmosphere and kind people, it’s also a good place to be because the Socialists are in power.
However, the Regional Elections are taking place in March.
The Parti Socialiste took power from the Right in 1998 and has held it ever since, though in the present political climate coming from Paris, 2010 could be a difficult one.
Sarkozy is making it his business to reclaim a lot of regions lost to the Left in 2004, but PACA is on the top of his list along with Ile-de-France (No inside information from me on that one).
The pressure therefore rests on the Mayor of Toulon (and minister for veterans), Hubert Falco who is preparing himself to head the UMP list, though he has yet to officially declare it. PACA is fairly naturally right-wing, with Sarkozy himself winning 62% in 2007.
So on paper the region looks like it could fall to the Right in 2010, just as it looked in 1998. Normally, it would be a straight duel between the PS and the UMP, were it not for the far-right Front National.
Avoiding a Three-Way
The UMP’s biggest fear is that the Front gets more than 10% and thus qualifies to the second round, creating a PS vs. UMP vs. FN triangle. In 2004, the results were 45.18% vs. 33.82% vs. 21.00% respectively.
Clearly the FN is successful at sapping the support of the UMP, allowing the Left to jump ahead. It seems odd that the far-right would allow such a thing to happen. The explanation mainly comes from the FN leader Jean-Marie Le Pen, for whom PACA is his old stomping ground as an MEP for the South East, and so it comes from pride more than ambition.
Note here the stark lack of principle in Sarkozy compared to Chirac. Chirac would never do any deals with the FN and fired anyone who did (Not a No Platform, just a No Bargaining policy). Sarko, on the other hand, is determined to grab as much as he can, and the UMP have been in discussion with Philippe de Villiers and his far-right but not quite the Front team (MPF party, for you experts).
Hubert Falco, UMP, keeps his cards close to his chest
The regional level of the UMP is under a strict keep-quiet policy under Sarkozy’s orders. The line from HQ is nothing else than “We’re getting on with the task at hand.” Dealing with the recession and all that kind of thing; there’s an economic crisis going on, people aren’t bothered with silly things like elections that happen every six years.
Falco, set to be the local boss, will of course have to leave his city of Toulon, and the department, to which he claimed he was dearly attached. Much like how Estrosi said his only loyalty was to Nice before he became Minister for Industry.
Michel Vauzelle, Parti Socialiste, wants to keep the Left united
This gent is going for a third mandate as Monsieur Le Président de la Région PACA which is coincidentally how many times I have spoken to him. (We get on well.)
His plan is a coalition of the Left (if it worked before…) however, this typically does not include Communists who have their own group. This time, it probably won’t include the Greens, as they’ve gained a bit of confidence since the EU elections and want to go it alone. (Morons) Vauzelle’s response was “What do they think they’re playing at?” He’s a very good bloke.
Jean-Marie Le Pen, Front National, wants to exact his revenge
As he’s past 80, these will be without doubt Le Pen’s last elections (Mark my words!), but he sees them as going to be triumphant. He didn’t run in 2004 because he was ineligible and left someone else at the top of the FN list, but with the big boss in town, the party might do surprisingly well. Last time when his part got about 20% he said the results were less than they were hoping for.
Le Pen’s strategy will be to go after those right-wingers taken in but then disappointed by Sarkozy, in addition to winning about 10% in the three “heaviest” departments. If they get past 10% in the regional, I won’t be the only one not surprised.
The End of My Very French By-election
The results came in last night, I was at party HQ as our various agents rang in to tell us the result from the polling station as we filled in the data one piece at a time.
The final result:
Xavier Garcia, Parti Socialiste: 40.54%
Lauriano Azinherinha, UMP: 59.46%
A surprisingly good result for Garcia in fact, in the first round the entire left won 35%, so it means he had the support of the Left and then some more.
In terms of analysis, the Green Vote was split between the two. The Communists helped the PS.
As I predicted right at the very beginning, despite an impressive performance in Round 1, the Front National and extreme right did not come out and vote, neither for the Socialist (who would have guessed?) nor the “Establishment”. This didn’t especially damage the Estrosi candidate, but it did leave him with a weaker result than he would have hoped for. (A 70/30 split would have been the benchmark).
The level of participation was almost identical at 20.15%. Though instead of the large drop that could have been expected from the abstention of the (fairly large) extreme right, the gap was filled by voters who only came out for the second round, most of whom were ones that voted for Garcia.
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