Posts Tagged "Elections"

French Election Results: First Round

Hollande leads with 28.63%
Sarkozy comes out with 27.08% (slightly better than the estimations that had him on 26.5).
Marine Le Pen sets a new record on 18.01%
Melenchon ends up with 11.13% (significantly less than the polls suggested, but an impressive performance having started at 5%)
Bayrou in the centre gets 9.11%
Joly (Greens) gets a poor 2.28%

Libération has the best and most interactive results gadget here but the FranceTV one can be embedded:

Rue89 calls the second round for Hollande, claiming that ‘there is no way Sarkozy can win’ (French).

I am much less optimistic. Not least because of my philosophy ‘If the PS can find a way to lose, it will.’

Hollande is the leader, which is better than I was expecting but 2% is not as high as I would like in order to feel comfortable. With two weeks to go he will be forced to define his ideas more clearly, and there is little to gain from debating with Sarkozy. Sarkozy proposed 3 debates last night, Hollande has refused two of them. Sarkozy will portray this as recognition of inexperience.

Sarkozy’s lurch to the far right has failed, but still remains his only hope. Analysts give Sarkozy a maximum reserve of 60% of the FN vote, and about 30% of the Bayrou vote.

The international press will focus on the Le Pen vote (only thing that seems to interest non-anaorak foreigners – if you are reading this, congratulations, you are in the anorak club). My question is, ‘What happened to Melenchon’s people?’ They didn’t go to Hollande at the last minute, they didn’t go back to the greens (polls were accurate on those two accounts), and they didn’t stay at home given 80% turnout.  Is it possibly that the crusty left lurched to the far right? Extremes meet.

Melenchon’s disappointing 11% score does not, in my view, give Hollande a very secure reserve as 15% would have done. The mysterious ‘dynamique’ that Hollande will get from leading in Round 1 will have to be translated into support from non-supporters. Perhaps Sarkozy’s far-right strategy will scare off enough centrists? It might, but it probably wouldn’t matter.

That said, my PS friends point to the fact that the Left is very high compared to normal (I didn’t want to upset them by saying Jospin came first in 1995 and still lost in the second round).

Before the results were in last night, a second round poll was conducted giving Hollande 54 and Sarkozy 46. Encouraging, but I don’t buy it will two weeks to go.

Overal, the next two weeks will not take place in the centre. Both Sarkozy and Hollande will have to try and pick apart the FN; a very unpleasant direction.

Alors je flippe.

Who will President Hollande’s Prime Minister be?

It might seem presumptuous given that the first round of voting is tomorrow, and the second round two weeks away, but everything points to a decisive Hollande win in the presidential election.

The question is thus, who will he choose as Prime Minister? When asked about the subject, Hollande’s response is to say that ‘No decision has been made. We haven’t won anything yet.’

He’s right. Not because he hasn’t thought about it yet, but because it is dependant on the first round.

Why does the President need a Prime Minister?

France, the 5th Republic, is a semi-presidential system, half-way between the USA’s presidential structure and the UK’s parliamentary one.

When Charles de Gaulle created the 5th Republic in 1958 in his own likeness, the President was to act like an elected monarch who would incarnate the Republic and represent France in human form. His special remit, known as the ‘reserved domain’ was defence and foreign policy. The rest of the day-to-day workings of the government were left to a Prime Minister, appointed by the President.

So while the President was supposed to be above politics, François Mitterrand decided to be a bit more ‘hands-on’, Nicolas Sarkozy was even more so.

François Hollande says that he intends to let the Prime Minister and the government get on with things. A common phrase he uses, referring to Sarkozy:

The President is the Head of State. You cannot be the Head of State and Head of the Majority and Head of a Party or a clan. You cannot be the head of everything and responsible for nothing.

This quotation is very relevant to Hollande’s choice of Prime Minister.

How about Pierre Moscovici?

Moscovici is Hollande’s campaign director, therefore his natural Number 2. However, I don’t think he will be named Prime Minister. I would imagine that he’ll become Secretary General of the Elysée (the presidential palace), very similar to a Chief of Staff. That’s the role he has played thus far anyway.

So who does Hollande want?

In Hollande’s ideal situation, I think he would appoint Jean-Marc Ayrault. Ayraut has a special place on the campaign team’s organigram, occupying his own special category of ‘Special Advisor’.

He is the leader of the Socialist group in the National Assembly and, depending on the results of the legislative elections, the Head of the Majority. A natural position from which he could become Prime Minister.

What will the deciding factor be?

Simply put: Jean-Luc Melenchon. François Hollande will have to look at the Front de Gauche score in the first round very carefully and consider his position.

Hollande has said ‘the government will be Socialist’, implying that there would be no ouverture to other parties like Sarkozy (and Gordon Brown) did in 2007. However, if Melenchon does particularly well (as some polls suggested earlier but later ones contradict) then Hollande’s hand will be guided towards Martine Aubry as a gesture to the left.

Aubry succeeded Hollande as Head of the Party, and was his main contender in the primaries. However, despite the mild rivalry, there is not the same vitriol as there was between Aubry and Ségolène Royal in 2009. I see no reason why they would not work well together.

So in a sentence, it’s between Ayrault and Aubry, mainly depending on Melenchon’s score. That’s my intuition. However, Harlem Désir, who was acting First Secretary of the party during the primaries because Aubry was a candidate, will want to take on the party leadership full time. Will Aubry, who was a minister in the last Socialist government, settle for anything less this time around?

Analysis: Elections in Catalunya

As predicted, the conservative CiU (Convergence and Union) won the elections in Catalunya, with the worst bofetada (literally meaning a slap in the face) ever for the PSC (Catalan Socialist Party). Mas, leader of the CiU,  is just 6 short of a majority in the Parliament of Catalunya.

Probably the best option for him is a CiU / PPC (Catalan Popular Party – a branch of the main Conservative Party in Spain) with acuerdos punctuales - a confidence and supply agreement as Mas ruled out a coalition with the PPC during the campaign. I understand CiU tried to govern with Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya once and it was a disaster – the ERC has a tendency of making trouble in government.

Supposedly, there could be a new tripartit coalition of the left, but as Socialist Leader Montilla has resigned from his seat in parliament following the elections I think it’s highly unlikely.

When the national general elections come in a few years, given the cyclical nature of Spanish politics I think the PP will win, its leader Rajoy will aim to become President of the Government and, in exchange, Mas and CiU will support him in the Congreso de los Diputados (House of Commons).

Rajoy will also be prepared to give away some friendly concessions to Catalunya to keep the CiU happy. Already the PP has dropped its anti-Catalan rhetoric.

It’s probably the beginning of a long friendship in Madrid.

Angela Merkel under pressure in Presidential elections

German Chancellor Angela Merkel faces a tough test of her government today as the 1,244 elected representatives vote for a new President. The highly symbolic position thus comes with a highly symbolic price ticket, acting almost as a motion of confidence in Merkel, her government and her austerity measures.

The European press has been peculiarly quiet on the subject. Not surprising for the British press, though the BBC mentioned the story if you actually search for it, but as I scoured the French papers (from L’Humanité to Le Figaro) it was only L’Humanité that said anything at all.

Although she commands a majority, Merkel’s position still looks very shaky. After a large hit in regional elections last month, followed by increased criticism over her indecision on the Euro Crisis, a loss for her candidate for the Presidency could well be strike three.

Partly in protest to Merkel, and partly out of admiration for the centre-left candidate, a number of centre-right representatives have signalled their intention to vote for Joachim Gauck, as opposed to their own candidate. Gauck grew up in East Germany and exposed a number of crimes committed by the communist Stasi police, and carries with him both respect and popularity.

Even if Merkel’s candidate, Christian Wulff, who is the Deputy Leader of her Christian Democratic party wins in the end. The measure of success will depend on how many ballots are needed to take place for a simple majority, which could be up to three.

Update @1717: The BBC, clearly inspired into investigating the story after I wrote about it, carries this article and says the ballot is slightly in favour of Merkel’s candidate, but will go to a second ballot.

Update @1812: Another update from the BBC (they know I’m looking) shows another blow to Merkel as this article claims a third ballot will be held, as he candidate still falls short.

Final Update @2205: Merkel’s candidate won, eventually, 625 votes to 494. Hardly a ringing endorsement!

Socialists sweep the Regional Elections

A massive victory for the Parti Socialiste tonight, winning 21/22 regions in France.

Sarkozy has finally made his mark on French history, it was thanks to him the Left won its highest score since the formation of the fifth republic (1958). Isn’t it beautiful?

In PACA, I’m delighted to say we won our corner. Results from France 3, because I spent the evening in their TV studio in Nice:

Michel Vauzelle (44%)
Thierry Mariani (33%).
Jean-Marie Le Pen (23%)

Abstention dropped from around 53% last week to 48,81%

President Sarkozy will meet with Prime Minister Fillion, it is presumed he will resign. I noted last week that Fillion would be the one to jump, despite that fact it is Sarkowy who has been governing. It is rather unfair considering Fillon is more popular than Sarkozy.

A longer post will follow tommorow.

French Regional Elections 2010: First results Update

Here are theresults for the First Round of the Regional Elections;

Parti Socialiste: 29.5%
UMP: 27%
Europe Ecologie: 12.5%
Front National: 11.7%
Front de Gauche: 6.2%
Modem: 4%
Extreme Gauche: 3.7%

Participation: VERY LOW around 46.5%

Conclusions:

• This is the worst score the UMP has ever had. Sarkozy was nowhere to be seen the entire night, and typically the Prime Minister, Francois Fillon was left holding the bag.
• Segolene Royal won 39% of the vote, evidently that’s amazing strong.
• The Greens have been able to secure their place as the third force in French Politics though they are a long way behind the Socialists, the orange MoDem people have been confined to the dustbin.

Now for the results in my regon of Provence Alpes Cote D’azur, which make for interesting reading:

Parti Socialiste: 26%
UMP: 26%
Front National: 20%
Europe Ecologie: 11%
Front de Gauche: 6.5%

So the PS and the UMP are neck and neck, which is amazing for the Left in an area like this. The Greens are able to go to the second round but I think it will be more likely that they fuse lists with the Socialists, likewise the FDG.

The FN have struck big here. One the one side you have Toulon, the most fascist town in the country, and then on top of it you have Jean-Marie Le Pen, a brand by himself. I think he enjoyed an emotional vote as it is the last time he’ll be a candidate.

It just goes to show there is still a lot to play for; but overall it was an excellent night for the Parti Socialiste.