Posts Tagged "6eme canton"
Countering the Coalition 3: United they fall, Keeping the coalition alive
In parts one and two of Countering the Coalition, I outlined how the current political terrain has changed and argued that the coalition will hold together for the duration of the parliament. Now I will explain how Labour can take advantage of the situation and discuss the role of leadership.
Given my previous points, Labour should not waste time trying to break up the coalition from the outside as MPs and activists have been trying to do. The conditions for a surviving partnership are in place and so by trying to exacerbate and exaggerate their differences we foster only a sense of solidarity between the Liberals and the Tories, which gives the appearance of a government united against the barbarians banging at the gates.
However, it is more desirable that the coalition remains intact until the next election. On our side, the main argument for not removing Brown as leader was a time limit. Should the coalition break down in as early as a year or two, then our new leader will not have the time to make a name for himself. (Note that I say ‘his’ for grammatical over political purposes.) Nor will he have the time to set a clear, distinct policy agenda; that is to say, if I can borrow the phrase, to show us his vision for Britain. From what I have seen of the very uninspiring contest so far, time is definitely something that they need.
The massive financial constraint in which the party finds itself dwarfs the time argument. Labour could not even hope to match the combined power of the Lib Dems and the Tories even in the best of times. In any case, it leads us to the question of how the parties will function together.
Normally in coalitions, there are no by-elections on a national level because a coalition is typically the result of Proportional Representation, which typically operates on a party list system. One out, everybody else moves up a space. They are even less frequent in France as each candidate has a running mate that has the democratic mandate to take over if necessary.
It therefore makes more sense to use a local example of a by-election that was caused by the cancellation of a result rather than a resignation or death (hence, why the running mate was unable to take over). Last summer, I was a by-election campaign manager for the Socialist candidate in the sixth district of Nice. The council is UMP (conservative) run and so the Socialists and Greens form the opposition group in coalition; usual practice is to have a discussion and then field one candidate. (Note how dependent the entire political system is on closed-door negotiations between party representatives.) Despite this, the Greens were overconfident after their good result in the EU Parliament elections and decided to go it alone. They broke the agreement, stole momentum from the Socialist candidate and ended up with a measly 7% anyway.
The spotlight here focuses on the practical implications of running a coalition, but if the Liberals and the Tories can work out a makeshift manifesto and a queen’s speech and a budget, it is safe to say they will work something out. Logic would suggest that the government would field a Liberal candidate where they are in the best place to win and a Tory where the Tories are in second place. The difficulties lie in Liberal/Tory marginals in the South, since they cannot criticise their honourable friend’s record with negative campaigning, nor can they campaign positively on the same program. I am not going to give them any clues on this one, though.
What Labour needs to do is push the debate to focus on the future (as I set out in part one), which means that we shall have to drop “Back to the 80s” as a campaign theme because it is pointless to fight non-ideology with ideology. Tony Blair wisely sustained the ghost of Thatcher while she still haunted the Tory party, and even though I was born in 1989 and never knew Thatcher, I can safely say of David Cameron that he’s no Thatcher. The Hague-wig strategy was effective in 2001, but nine years later, it no longer works.
Leadership is now a major current in British Politics, the Presidentialisation of which is one of Thatcher’s many legacies. A pattern has emerged whereby years of strong and unbending leadership precede a period of chaos and division; an obvious parallel to draw is the Thatcher-Major Blair-Brown axis. Each one appears to be the antidote to the other, until their leadership strengths become weaknesses. Thatcher was isolated because of her unwillingness to accept dissent, so Major seemed like a sensible return to Cabinet government. Blair ruled from the sofa, and Brown’s premiership is epitomised around the word ‘leadership’ more than any other.
This has implications for our own leadership contest. All the candidates so far have been parroting conciliatory words like “open,” “debate,” “progressive,” “listening,” when the political cycle in fact demands another conviction politician from our side.
It is time Labour finally laid the Thatcher threat to rest, not least because a whole generation of voters did not experience the 80s. Nevertheless, we can evoke the ghost of John Major, whose government’s divisions may have trodden the path the coalition will follow. Without contradicting myself on Major, it was best for Labour that he was sufficiently weak as a leader, but it was still vital that he remained in Number 10. If the coalition is sinking, we want to keep the rats firmly on board the ship.
Politics and Me: I’ll have to sit this one out
The General Election is the 6th of May. I should be out and about in Bath and North East Somerset campaigning like (I hope) my friends are.
Instead, I’m in Spain. I keep reminding people, to their surprise, that I study languages, not politics. Amazingly, students of politics are the least politically engaged people I know, but that’s another story.
So I’ve spent this year, the third year of my degree split between France and Spain. In France I was working for my ideological colleagues, and now friends, in the Parti Socialiste and the Conseil Regional (Regional Government.) There, I fought two elections; the by-election in September, then the Regional Elections in March. It was a small defeat followed by a massive triumph, and as far as memories go, I’ll never forget them or the people there.
I always say that politics is my hobby, which makes people laugh, because in fact it’s so much more than that. I say to all those people who don’t engage in it, that think we’re all the same, or even ask me (with contempt) why I even bother:
I’ll stand up for you even though you won’t stand up for yourself, because someone has to.
I hate, with deadly seriousness, that I can’t be there now for the General Election. Not just for me, but for all those people who don’t understand what’s at stake.
At the risk of repeating that Clinton moment, I just don’t want to see my country fall behind. I can understand if a Tory Government is elected, but what really hurts is that I was unable to do anything about it. I want to make a contribution but I can’t. I feel very helpless.
I just have to sit on the sidelines, watching with intent, with nothing but this website, that everybody ignores, including my friends.
So I say to you all, get out there and campaign for whoever you feel will do the job, make a choice, and stick to it, because we all have to live with the consequences.
The End of My Very French By-election
The results came in last night, I was at party HQ as our various agents rang in to tell us the result from the polling station as we filled in the data one piece at a time.
The final result:
Xavier Garcia, Parti Socialiste: 40.54%
Lauriano Azinherinha, UMP: 59.46%
A surprisingly good result for Garcia in fact, in the first round the entire left won 35%, so it means he had the support of the Left and then some more.
In terms of analysis, the Green Vote was split between the two. The Communists helped the PS.
As I predicted right at the very beginning, despite an impressive performance in Round 1, the Front National and extreme right did not come out and vote, neither for the Socialist (who would have guessed?) nor the “Establishment”. This didn’t especially damage the Estrosi candidate, but it did leave him with a weaker result than he would have hoped for. (A 70/30 split would have been the benchmark).
The level of participation was almost identical at 20.15%. Though instead of the large drop that could have been expected from the abstention of the (fairly large) extreme right, the gap was filled by voters who only came out for the second round, most of whom were ones that voted for Garcia.
My Very French By-Election: Round 1 Results
On Sunday night, I received the results to Round 1 of the by-election. They make for interesting reading!
I had to deal with it in an Excel spreadsheet and figure out who was who, but YOU get this nice handy chart:
So, there are a number of interesting conclusions I draw from this. (Note the French use a comma instead of a decimal point. Even punctuation translates.)
1. Unsurprisingly, the UMP candidate is way ahead with 40.54% compared to us in second place with 15.38%. This means that we go to the second round on Sunday, but it doesn’t look likely that we will win.
2. The Greens failed miserably. There score is way below what they should have expected considering their performance at the EU Parliament Elections. They have also (once again) refused to enter an alliance with us. In fact, in an interview a Green (not important who) said “The principles of the PS are not compatible with Europe Ecologie” – A barely veiled call to vote Right, I think.
3. The “Left” put together about 35%. I don’t know about “Modem” (Lib Dems!) but I think the Communists are willing to help.
4. Participation was 20%. Not surprising for a by-election taking place during the summer and just after the return to school, yet still despicable.
5. The Extreme Right is the really interesting one, in which I eat my own words. I had said not to worry too much about the FN because they had collapsed in 2007. You can’t argue that 8% isn’t a good performance, add it to his other fascist-friend (Nissa Identitaire) and you have a total of 16%. It seems they’re getting their act together once again.
Nevertheless, nothing is lost. Into the breach, camarades!
If you have any questions, I’ll answer them in the comments.
My Very French By-Election: Round 1
As voters in Pasteur, Cimiez and Libération vote in the first round of the by-election for Nice 6, I’ll take you through the choice they face. There are 11 candidates in total from the extreme left all the way to the extreme right. The two winners from today will go through to round 2 next Sunday. Meaning there’s still a week to go before we definitely definitely win.
The Heavyweights
The local press has framed the election mainly as a “duel between left and right” with the two main parties in France likely to go through.
Xavier Garica: Parti Socialiste
My team! Xavier Garcia is the press spokesman for the Parti Socialiste and grew up in the constituency. He seems to be the only candidate with a consistent slogan “Pour mieux vivre dans notre quartier” (To improve life in our neighbourhood”) and a very good poster designer (not me). His website is also first rate.
We put out a questionnaire at the beginning of the campaign and had over 500 responses. Guess whose task it was to put the answers in a spreadsheet? Yo. At least now I know this section of town better than most residents of Nice.
His only potential weaknesses are the image of the PS at a national level (a mess) and the fact that he has never run for anything before. However, this could of course work in his favour compared to our adversary.
Lauriano Azinheirinha: Union pour un Mouvement Populaire
The “favourite” in that the UMP won the election first time round but were disqualified (The PS did not field a candidate; see the Greens). They have glossy leaflets and incumbency on their side.
However, the candidate is not particularly well known despite already being a Deputy Mayor. He is relying on the charisma and name recognition of Christian Estrosi. As you can see in the picture “Estrosi avec Lauriano!” and on all his literature the name Estrosi has been in bold. Dirty Tricks abundant, Estrosi even wrote a letter to the residents of the canton telling them who to vote for. TSK.
The problem with riding on Estrosi’s coattails is that they are plenty of anti-Estrosi people out there!
The Lightweights
Though there are other minor characters we’ve seen out and about:
Vincent Péchenot: Les Verts (Greens)
When the elections were officially taking place, the PS decided not to field their own candidate but make an agreement with the Greens, as they work together in the group Changer D’ère in the Mayoralty.
From what I gather, this gent is not really a viable candidate to go against the UMP war machine so the PS decided to take it upon themselves.
I’ve seen them out leafletting fairly frequently, though it was off to a slow start. One particular occasion they were riding around Pasteur on bicycles with green flags. That might work in Cimiez (lots of richy-ecologist types) but not so much in Pasteur. D’oh!
Then we have this not very interesting assortment of right-wingers, most of whom pitch them selves as “UMP without the UMP part” or just plain “No to Estrosi”. (Spot the Lib Dem)
The Loonies
And you can’t have 11 candidates without finding a few comedy gems and plain old nightmares!
Communists
Though the Parti Communiste is typically considered mainstream, I just haven’t quite got used tot eh idea that Communists still exist. The PCF campaign hasn’t been great at all, and their literature has been AWFUL. It’s a nice poster though, if a little cluttered by logos.
We haven’t seen much of this guy apart from posters, but he’s definitely my favourite after Xavier (for a different reason); I don’t know why, but everytime I pass his poster I die from laughing, perhaps you can figure it out:
Hahaha. It’s just brilliant. First, contrast it with the others and you notice a certain rough-and-ready quality.
Second, compare it with the official Communist Party candidate: The Black-and-White photo, OLD-SCHOOL! For all those who feel that the Communist Party is just too damn right wing these days! We need a PROPER communist around here.
I think it’s the Hammer and Sickle that gets me.
The Fascists
So we have the extreme Left, now take a look at the extreme Right:
Jean-Louis Faudi: Front National
The bigger brother of the BNP, the FN has been the subject of many questions posed to me.
First, it has to be said that the FN has not got a huge presence in Nice any more. It just to be very strong, but due to local internal fighting the organisation all but collapsed. You tend to find pockets of FN activity, but I haven’t seen any obvious activism as I think they only come out at night. I have seen areas with “Le Pen: President” stickers on lamp posts, and they have covered a fair bit of ground in terms of paper, but nothing slick.
Click on the poster above though, and you’ll notice a few things: One, he just looks plain evil, what with the squinting. Two, some have asked about whether, like the BNP they have tried to “reinvent themselves.” I’ll point you to the black shirt. I’ll also point you to the mini picture of the Muslim women. The slogan reads “meme emballée, l’immigration n’est pas un cadeau” which means “Even wrapped up, Immigration is not a gift.”
Benoit Loeuillet: Nissa Rebelda
But for those of you out there who think the FN is for softy pinkos, there exists an even further right candidate for you!
This is, to my knowledge, the NiceIndependence movement. You can see that some enterprising individual decided reveal his little Hiter ‘stache. The funny thing is he gave the kiss of death to Xavier in an interview where he said (roughly):
The only good surprise about this campaign has been that Garcia. At last! A lefty who is not afraid to talk about security. 2nd round, we vote for him.
Round 2
At the moment, I (like everyone else) am assuming that it is the UMP and the PS who will qualify, though the results will be announced officially tonight. Then it’s a straight head to head until the winner is decided next Sunday.
If all goes well, the Greens and Communists will come rallying to us. Conversely, it’s unlikely that the UMP guy, on such an overly pro-Estrosi platform, is going to win the support of the Far-Right or even the Centre-Right minor parties.
My very French By-election: The Battle for Nice 6
On Sunday, habitants of the 6th canton (district of a town) of Nice will go to the polls to elect a new Conseiller Général (It’s kind of like a Local Councillor).
This is a by-election, after the elected UMP candidate was disqualified for breaking the rules on funding. The area in question is Nice 6, which is a big district spanning from Libération through Pasteur and up to Cimiez.
Obviously, I’m going to present to you a very impartial and balanced view:
Votez pour nous!
I’ve been on the Campaign Team for the Parti Socialiste; our candidate is Xavier Garcia. I’ve been particularly involved with this because he is also the man who welcomed me to France and offered my current job. I am thus especially indebted to him for his kindness and hope you will all join his Facebook group, even if you can’t vote, or even if you can’t understand French. Hopefully, I have helped him as much as he has helped me. (You might recognise his website from somewhere…)
The Candidates and Parties
There are 11 candidates, ranging from the Communist Party to the Socialist Party to the UMP and the National Front, with plenty in between.
Amazingly the Left is more united than the Right, (how is that possible, you cry?) with just the PCF (Communists) and the PS (Socialists) and the Greens.
The Right on the other hand, (as it would be) is privy to Sarkozy’s UMP, an independent friend-of-the-embittered-former-mayor, a whole host of other tiny independents and of course the National Front, the older brother of the BNP. I haven’t seen more than a poster from them, but I have heard they’ve been around.
How to say NO
A question I am frequently asked is “Don’t they all hate you?” The answer is in fact, no! Of course there is an abundance of right wingers, but they don’t get angry, they just say “no thanks, I’m from the Right” so we say “Okay, have a nice day” and move on. The Lefties are the ones who are generally more energetic, particularly the old ones against “the reactionary Right!”
One man does stick in my mind though, we knocked on his door and he told us that he “always voted but neither left nor right.” I think he was FN…
Leaflets and Literature
I’ve learned a great deal about effective campaigning (I’ve learned plenty of what-not-to-do as well, from the other parties of course). Perhaps it’s a French condition, but they all seem to love writing long letters with lots of text.
I’ve collected most of the literature I’ve seen while out and about which ranges from the very very good, to the very very bad. So here are a few of the highlights:
My favourite include an early leaflet from the UMP which focuses mainly on the personality of the mayor, Christian Estrosi, rather than the local candidate. In a style that suggests “Our glorious leader presents to you… some guy!” Estrosi’s name features first, is bigger, and is in a brighter colour than the gent who is actually running.
Then a Communist piece (in monochrome BLUE ink, just to add to the confusion) which spans four pages of nothing but text. Which a sort of questionnaire at the end of each proposition, where the choices are “I share this view” or “I do not share this view” or “I have a different view” – That’s Communism, I suppose!
Who is going to win?
I don’t know. I think the PS has put forward the best campaign, but there are a lot of UMP voters out there anyway. The French system dictates that there are two rounds of elections, so hopefully we will get through on Sunday to round 2, which will be between just two (maybe three) or the bigger candidates.
Stay Tuned.
Badges
