Analysis: Elections in Catalunya
As predicted, the conservative CiU (Convergence and Union) won the elections in Catalunya, with the worst bofetada (literally meaning a slap in the face) ever for the PSC (Catalan Socialist Party). Mas, leader of the CiU, is just 6 short of a majority in the Parliament of Catalunya.
Probably the best option for him is a CiU / PPC (Catalan Popular Party – a branch of the main Conservative Party in Spain) with acuerdos punctuales - a confidence and supply agreement as Mas ruled out a coalition with the PPC during the campaign. I understand CiU tried to govern with Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya once and it was a disaster – the ERC has a tendency of making trouble in government.
Supposedly, there could be a new tripartit coalition of the left, but as Socialist Leader Montilla has resigned from his seat in parliament following the elections I think it’s highly unlikely.
When the national general elections come in a few years, given the cyclical nature of Spanish politics I think the PP will win, its leader Rajoy will aim to become President of the Government and, in exchange, Mas and CiU will support him in the Congreso de los Diputados (House of Commons).
Rajoy will also be prepared to give away some friendly concessions to Catalunya to keep the CiU happy. Already the PP has dropped its anti-Catalan rhetoric.
It’s probably the beginning of a long friendship in Madrid.
This Post Has 1 Comment
Leave A Reply
Badges
I feel happy that the Catalan election has some repercussion abroad and it's good to know that people try to analyse it
New political panorama in Catalonia has something to do with what is happening around Europe (now we have a centre-right and Catalan nationalist coalition that is very close to majority in Parliament) and we're specially worried about the rise of a racist party (PxC) -they have no seats in Parliament at last-.
The left majority Catalan party, PSC, and the two others "tripartit" parties have been truly punished at the election. They have lost 21 seats and, for this reason, a third "tripartit" is discarded…
We are now looking forward to know what is going to happen next. PSC and ERC are trying to redefine themselves and I'm sure that this election closes a period in Catalan politics. Maybe in Spanish politics also. In Spain we have a 20% rate of unemployment and people is angry with government (if PP were in the government, I'm sure that people would be angry with their government… it's only that in Spain we like to accuse somebody of our problems).
Best regards from Barcelona!
PD. Sorry for my English, I'm trying to improve it.