De Villepin returns for his revenge

Dominique de Villepin, former Prime Minister of France, launched his new party over the weekend, République Solidaire. While everyone in Britain discusses the budget, here are some thoughts on what effect de Villepin might have on the presidential elections in 2012.

De Villepin and Sarkozy are old enemies. Everytime Sarkozy thinks he has beaten de Villepin for good, he just keeps coming back. For a year and a half, de Villepin has been out of politics, having been implicated (but acquitted) in the Affaire Clearstream (a financial scandal around the Elysée) and a slander trial, in which Sarkozy was co-plaintiff.

It is assumed that the new party, or rather, new group, such is the way French politics works, will be a mechanism to damage further Sarkozy and thus make his candidacy more credible. Sarkozy’s UMP party are likely to support him as their candidate for re-election.

Nobody expects de Villepin to win. Predictions are around 5-7%. The newspaper Libération (the one I read) carried a few polls inside that suggested there was some strong support for him, but nothing significant. His support base comes from his different style to Sarkozy, seen as much more of a diplomatic intellectual compared to the bling-bling president.

The most shocking effect his result could produce is to deny the UMP a place in the second round of the Presidentials.

The Socialists seem to have kept their act together following their regional successes (give it time…), all they need to do now is select a credible candidate and they could be in with a very good chance of victory.

The Greens have a lot of momentum behind them now, after two significant advances in the European and Regional elections (June 2009 and March 2010) but will mostly support the Socialists, at least in the second round.

The focus will be on the Front National. Perhaps one of the greatest failures of Sarkozy is the way he dealt with the fascists, by moving his party closer to them in order to steal some votes. It worked in 2007 and in 2009, but they have now stood him up. The FN showed that they were still live and kicking in the Regionals, and though Jean-Marie Le Pen won’t be the candidate, his daughter might be able to sustain a high enough score.

As a conclusion, it is thus worth considering that we may see a bizarre reversal of 2002. Back then, the Socialist were knocked out in Round One, leaving a UMP (then known as the RPR) vs Front National battle.

If de Villepin manages to attract enough support, he might finally get his revenge against Sarkozy: a humiliating first-round defeat that leads to a Socialist-Fascist fight, and then a Socialist President.